College Basketball Betting Guide for Friday 3/11/22: 3 Conference Tournament Games to Target
March Madness is on its way, and conference tournaments are starting up all across the country.
Today, we see tournament action across quite a few conferences, including the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC.
Which games should draw our attention? Let's find out.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Dayton Flyers
The Dayton Flyers are 10.5-point favorites over the Massachusetts Minutemen in this Atlantic 10 quarterfinal, and there's reason to believe that Dayton should be able to cover that sizable spread.
There's no question that the Flyers are the far superior team. Per KenPom, Dayton is the 48th-best team in the country, whereas UMass is way down at 190th.
The Flyers have good-to-great metrics pretty much across the board, coming in at 60th in adjusted offense and 36th in adjusted defense, per BartTorvik.com.
The same can't be said for the Minutemen. They may have a top-50 adjusted offense, but they're absolutely dreadful defensively, coming in at 344th out of 358 teams.
In their lone matchup this season, Dayton took care of business at home, besting UMass by 21 points.
numberFire's algorithm gives the Flyers an 81.9% chance of winning, and according to our Brandon Gdula's model, they should be closer to 12.0-point favorites. I like Dayton's chances of winning and covering tonight.
Morgan State Bears vs. Norfolk State Spartans
Moving over to a MEAC semifinal, the Norfolk State Spartans are 5.5-point favorites over the Morgan State Bears. Again, the favorite may not be getting enough credit.
Truth be told, the Spartans aren't exactly an upper-echelon team, as they rank just 169th overall, per KenPom, and they're outside the top 180 in both adjusted offense and defense.
But this is more about their bottom-of-the-barrel opponent. Morgan State barely cracks the top 300 in KenPom's rankings, the byproduct of ranking 318th in adjusted offense and 247th in adjusted defense.
Taking it one step further, the Bears' offense sits outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, and three-point percentage. They're also one of the very worst teams in free throw rate allowed, ranking 352nd.
The two teams split the season series one apiece, with Norfolk State winning by 20 at home but losing by 11 on the road. That loss came with Morgan State uncharacteristically shooting over 50% from the field and from three-point range, though, which they'll have a tough time repeating in this rubber match.
According to numberFire's model, the Spartans have a 56.24% likelihood of covering, making it a one-star play.
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Virginia Tech Hokies may only be a 7 seed in the ACC tournament, but they've been making some noise this week. They hit a buzzer-beat three to best Clemson in overtime on Wednesday and then upset the 2 seed last night in an impressive victory over Notre Dame.
They now take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (3 seed) in the semifinals, and while the Hokies are 2.5-point underdogs against a ranked opponent, this matchup could be closer to a toss-up.
According to KenPom's rankings, only two spots separate North Carolina (25th) and Virginia Tech (27th), and both teams are top 25 in adjusted offense. They also mirror each other defensively at 61st and 72nd, respectively, in adjusted D.
Although Virginia Tech does a poor job of getting to the charity stripe (332nd in free throw rate), they make up for it was elite shooting from beyond the arc, ranking 4th in three-point shooting percentage.
Virginia Tech lost both regular-season games to UNC, but they've finished the season on a high note. The Hokies have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games and rank as the nation's 16th-best team over that span, per BartTorvik.
The Hokies have a 56.40% chance of covering the spread and a 48.07% shot at winning outright, per numberFire's model. Betting the spread or the moneyline shake out as one-star wagers.
