NCAA Tournament: Final Four Game Previews and Win Probabilities, Presented by Visible

In this year's NCAA Tournament, the Saint Peter's Peacocks' Cinderella story lasted longer than most others ever do, but now that we're down to the Final Four, only the elite teams remain.

Each of the four teams remaining rank inside the top 20 in all-time wins: the Kansas Jayhawks (1st), the North Carolina Tar Heels (3rd), the Duke Blue Devils (4th), and the Villanova Wildcats (19th).

How do the remaining games stack up? And who is most likely to advance?

Speaking of questions, don't forget to enter the Call Your Shot Pick 'Em Presented by Visible for your free chance at $10,000 during the semifinals. All you have to do is answer questions predicting how the games will play out. Get your picks in by April 2nd for your chance at a share of $10,000.

Let's break down the matchups.

Kansas (1) vs. Villanova (2)

How They Advanced
The Jayhawks rolled through the Texas Southern Tigers (83-56), held off the Creighton Bluejays (79-72) and Providence Friars (66-61), and then stonewalled the Miami Hurricanes (75-50) to advance to their 16th Final Four in school history.

Kansas has been led by a stifling defense in the tournament. BartTorvik ranks the Jayhawks 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency during the NCAA Tournament -- and first in effective field goal percentage allowed -- but just 30th in adjusted offense.

That's actually a bit scary because, on the full season, Kanas ranks sixth in offensive efficiency. The defense has been there, and the offense should tick back up soon. That makes them a strong team able to look even stronger once the shots start falling.

As for the Villanova Wildcats, they have a similar in-tournament story this year -- yet 10 fewer Final Four appearances than Kansas.

They're 21st in adjusted offense and 7th in adjusted defense, marks they have used to win by 20, 10, 8, and 6 in the Big Dance.

However, since an efficient offensive game against the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens in the Round of 64, Nova's offense has trended down even after adjusting for opponent.

A Key to This Game
Again, both sides have a lot of similarities, but a drastic difference is their tempo.

Kansas ranks 67th in adjusted pace on the full season (69.3 possessions per game), via BartTorvik. By contrast, Villanova is 346th (62.4 possessions per game).

Notably, against slow teams this season who made the tournament (so, the Texas Longhorns twice and Providence in the tournament itself), Kansas is 2-1 with wins of just 5 and 7 points and a road loss by 3 to Texas.

On the flip side, Villanova is 2-5 against seven uptempo tournament teams with an average point differential of -3.6 points.

Whichever side can really control the tempo, then, could hold a massive edge.

Odds to Reach the Championship Game
numberFire's model gives the Kansas Jayhawks a 60.3% chance to advance to the championship.

Duke (2) vs. North Carolina (8)

How They Advanced
For Duke, the path to their 17th Final Four has been paved by their offense.

BartTorvik ranks them as the most efficient offense in the NCAA Tournament (129.9 adjusted points per 100 possessions, 5.4 points better than any other team's rate). That's paired with the 47th-ranked adjusted defense.

Not helping the Duke defense is a lack of turnover generation (12.7%, ranking 56th among tournament teams).

That hasn't mattered, though. They've maintained a 10.0-point differential so far (a number that is 7.7 points since the Round of 32).

For North Carolina? They've been the best team in the tournament in terms of adjusted efficiency. They rank fourth in adjusted offense and eighth in adjusted defense inside the NCAA Tournament.

They're the only team to rank top-15 in both -- and they're top 8 in both! Not a bad way to reach a record 21st Final Four.

A Key to This Game
Naturally, in this matchup, we have in-season games to refer back to.

Certainly, Duke won't forget losing to UNC in head coach Mike Krzyzewski's last game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 5th by a score of 94-81.

That 13-point loss for Duke followed a 20-point win against North Carolina in Chapel Hill in their first meeting, so neither game has been particularly close.

A potential key that jumps out in this matchup is the three-point arc. In the tournament, Duke (39.1%) ranks 10th in three-point percentage. North Carolina (40.7%) ranks fourth.

But while Duke's defense hasn't been that impressive in the tournament, they rank 51st in three-point attempt rate allowed on the full season, meaning they do well to limit three-point attempts (which is a good way to measure perimeter defense).

UNC is just inside the NCAA median (147th of 368 teams) in three-point attempt rate allowed. If Duke controls the arc and UNC can't, Duke's offense might prove to be too much.

Odds to Reach the Championship Game
numberFire's model gives the Duke Blue Devils a 66.4% chance to advance to the championship.