College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/31/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Mississippi State -9.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating
We've got a fairly solid Mississippi State squad on the road to take on a pitiful South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rank 271st in the nation by our nERD metric and are one of the worst Power-5 teams out there. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, sit 56th in nERD. Barttorvik is pretty much right in line with our numbers, ranking Mississippi State 66th and South Carolina 273rd.
South Carolina has lost five straight, four of which were by at least 12 points. They've covered just twice over their last seven games. They're really, really bad.
Mississippi State is in a funk, too, going 2-8 over their past 10, but that record is a little misleading. 9 of those 10 games came against teams in the Barttorvik top 100, including two clashes apiece versus Alabama and Tennessee -- a pair of top-four nERD teams. The Bulldogs just got a nice overtime win against TCU (15th in nERD), and during their skid, Miss State lost by only three to Alabama (4th) and six against Auburn (28th).
While 9.5 points is a lot for any road team in college hoops, Mississippi State is the side to be on. Our algorithm projects a 71.3-57.0 win for the Bulldogs. We think Miss State covers 63.9% of the time and assign this bet a three-star rating (three-unit recommendation).
Clemson at Boston College
Clemson Moneyline (-176): 5-Star Rating
Clemson -4.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating
This matchup is similar to the one we just talked about in that we have a pretty decent team on the road against an extremely blah opponent.
Clemson slots in 68th by nERD and 62nd by Barttorvik. Our numbers rank Boston College 200th while Barttorvik puts them 205th.
The Tigers are having a sneaky-good season -- even if they probably aren't as good as a typical 18-4 side. They've won 14 of their last 16 and sit 10-1 in ACC play. They've covered in 7 of their past 10 games. Since ACC play started, Clemson has played only three games against teams outside the Barttorvik top 190, and they've won by 13, 13 and 21 in those contests.
Boston College is bad in every facet. They're 252nd in offense and 149th in D, per Barttorvik. They've lost by at least eight in each of their past four games against Barttorvik top-70 teams.
We project Clemson to win 71.0-62.7. We think they cover the spread 63.7% of the time. Taking them at -4.5 is a three-star bet.
The moneyline is an even better wager, per our model. The -176 price implies win odds of 63.8%. We have Clemson's win odds at 78.9% and give a Tigers moneyline bet a five-star rating.
Indiana at Maryland
Maryland Moneyline (-152): 1-Star Rating
Maryland -2.5 (-120): 1-Star Rating
This should be a good matchup between the 2002 title game participants. Both teams have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride this season but are trending up for this one.
Maryland has won three of its last four, with the lone loss being a three-point defeat at Purdue (fifth by nERD). The Terps have been excellent against the spread (ATS) all year long, going 14-7 ATS. They've covered in five of their past six games and boast an impressive 11-1 straight-up record in College Park, losing to only UCLA (third by nERD) at home. Since the good showing at Purdue, Maryland has won by 18 and 19 in a pair of home games versus Wisconsin and Nebraska, respectively.
Indiana opened the year as one of the Big Ten favorites. It's been anything but smooth sailing. After starting the campaign 7-0, IU went 3-6 over its next nine -- with none of the wins coming against Barttorvik top-100 teams -- and lost two starters (Race Thompson and Xavier Johnson) to injury in the process. The arrow is pointing up, though. The Hoosiers have ripped off five consecutive wins and recently got Thompson back into the lineup.
This has all the makings of a letdown spot for IU. Not only are the Hoosiers coming off an unsustainably good shooting night last time out (10 of 20 from deep), they have a big rivalry game with Purdue coming up on Saturday. Plus, Indiana has struggled mightily away from Assembly Hall, going 1-6 ATS in its past seven road/neutral games. Their last road Big Ten game was a four-point victory over a Minnesota team that ranks 204th by nERD.
We see a teeny bit of value in this one. Our model projects a 72.0-68.7 win for the Terrapins, giving Maryland a 62.7% chance to prevail. The -152 moneyline implies win odds of 60.3%. We have the Terps covering the spread 53.0% of the time.