College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/7/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Rutgers at Indiana
Rutgers +4.5 (-110): 1-Star Rating
This should be a good one between two squads jockeying to be the second-best team in the Big 10.
Going on the road to Assembly Hall is a tall task for anyone, as Purdue just found out, but I like Rutgers' chances of covering as a 4.5-point underdog today at Indiana.
By most metrics, Rutgers is the better team. KenPom has Rutgers 16th and Indiana 20th. Our nERD-based metrics fall in line with that, putting Rutgers 16th and IU 22nd. The gap is bigger on Barttorvik, with the Scarlet Knights 15th and the Hoosiers 28th.
These two teams played back on December 3rd, and Rutgers dominated in a 63-48 win. That type of defensive performance is not an outlier for the Scarlet Knights, who sit second nationally in D on Barttorvik.
Rutgers is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over their past 10 games, and Barttorvik has them losing by just 1.5 points today. Our model isn't quite that bullish on the Scarlet Knights but still gives Rutgers a 52.8% chance to cover.
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -15.5 (-110): 4-Star Rating
Pittsburgh is a huge home favorite tonight against Louisville, but you can make a strong case that the spread should be even bigger than 15.5 points.
Louisville is really, really bad. They rank 301st on Barttorvik and 308th by our numbers. Meanwhile, we rank Pitt 68th, and the Panthers slot in 66th on Barttorvik. There's a big talent gap here, which is why the spread is where it is.
In their last two games against Barttorvik top-70 teams, Louisville has lost by 21 points in each, including a 75-54 home defeat against Pittsburgh. The Cards have covered only once across their past four road games.
Barttorvik has Pitt winning by 18.3 points. Our projections have the Panthers winning by 23.1. We give Pitt a 70.8% chance to cover the spread and rate it as a four-star play.
Toledo at Akron
Akron Moneyline (-137): 3-Star Rating
Two of the best teams in the MAC meet up in this one.
Akron is 9-1 in conference play and sits one game ahead of Toledo and Kent State, so this is a crucial matchup for each side.
Akron has won eight straight. Dating back to December 4th, they've gone 14-2. The Zips are a perfect 12-0 at home, and while a Toledo offense that ranks 13th in the nation, per Barttorvik, will be a difficult matchup, the Zips are 74th in defense and should be up to the challenge.
Overall, the Zips have a slight edge over the Rockets by our numbers (96th to 99th), KenPom (95th to 104th) and Barttorvik (93rd to 97th). Once you add in Akron's homecourt advantage, it's pretty easy to get behind the Zips at this -137 moneyline price.
We think Akron wins 69.3% of the time. The -137 moneyline implies win odds of only 57.8%. Taking Akron to win outright is a three-star wager, according to our model.
There's also a little value on the spread (Akron -2.5) if you're so inclined. We project Akron to win by 5.1 points. Barttorvik pegs the Zips to win by 4.1.
