College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/14/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Creighton at Providence
Over 139.5 (-115)
This should be a fantastic game, and our numbers see value on the total.
Both Creighton and Providence boast top-notch offenses as they rank 28th and 22nd, respectively, in adjusted offense, per KenPom. Despite the quality of the offenses, this 139.5-point total isn't all that high. Over Creighton's past 10 games, they've had just two totals in the 130s, and the same goes for Providence.
When these two teams played earlier this year, they teamed up for 140 points. They got to that total in spite of going a combined 7 of 35 from three. The odds are they won't shoot that poorly again today.
Our model projects the total to be well over this. We have it at 148.1 points and expect the over to cash 68.8% of the time. Barttorvik isn't as confident as our metrics but still has the projected total at 143.0. The over is the bet to be on in this Big East showdown.
Michigan at Wisconsin
Wisconsin Moneyline (-125)
Two teams who have had underwhelming seasons will tangle tonight in Madison in a Big Ten matchup.
By most metrics, Michigan is a little better than Wisconsin, and that's why the Badgers -- despite being at home -- are just 1.5-point favorites. But the gap between the two teams isn't that big. Our nERD metric ranks Michigan 58th and Wisconsin 75th. Barttorvik (53rd vs. 79th) and KenPom (53rd vs. 71st) are pretty much right in line with that.
Wisconsin has lost eight of its past 11 games and has been unusually poor at home, winning only one of its last four home contests. It's been a bad year.
It's not like Michigan is tearing up it, though, especially on the road. The Wolverines have won just once across their previous five road affairs, and they've won just two true road games all season.
There's a sliver of value in taking Wisconsin to win. The -125 moneyline price implies win odds of 55.6%. We give the Badgers a 60.0% chance to win while Barttorvik puts their win odds at 57%. I'm a touch more bullish on Wisky and really like this play tonight.
Wyoming at New Mexico
New Mexico -10.5 (-102)
This spread isn't big enough.
By whatever all-encompassing metric you want to use, New Mexico is clearly the better squad. KenPom (52nd vs. 169th), nERD (40th vs. 174th) and Barttorvik (46th vs. 158th) all have New Mexico well ahead of Wyoming. New Mexico is better. The question, though, is whether or not the Lobos can cover as 10.5-point favorites.
I think they can.
New Mexico will have a huge advantage when they have the ball. Barttorvik ranks Wyoming 242nd in defense while the Lobos slot in 25th in offense.
The Cowboys are just 1-4 against the spread over their past five road games. Working against them today is their schedule. Not only is Wyoming operating on one fewer day of rest than the Lobos, the Cowboys' last game was at Boise State, making for a lot of travel in the past few days.
Our projections have New Mexico winning this game by a score of 80.7-66.2. We give the Lobos a 61.5% chance to cover. Barttorvik has New Mexico winning by 13.5 points.
