College Basketball Betting Guide: Thursday 2/23/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Stony Brook at UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington -10.5 (-112)
UNC Wilmington should be a bigger favorite over Stony Brook, per our projections.
UNC Wilmington is a much better team. Our nERD-based rankings have the Seahawks 166th and Stony Brook 332nd. Barttorvik (172nd vs. 341st) and KenPom (162nd vs. 333rd) have a similarly sized gap between the two sides.
The Seawolves are bad all the way around, ranking outside the top 310 teams in both adjusted defense and adjusted offense, according to Barttorvik. They should have a really tough time scoring on a UNC Wilmington defense that checks in a respectable 110th in the nation.
UNC Wilmington has covered two straight home games and won by 11 points at Stony Brook earlier this year.
Our model has the Seahawks winning by 16.9 points today and gives them a 67.8% chance to cover. Barttorvik doesn't feel quite as confident as our algorithm does but has UNC Wilmington winning by 12.3 points.
Robert Morris at IUPUI
IUPUI +10.5 (-106)
IUPUI is one of the worst teams in the country -- ranked 360th by nERD -- but I like their chances to cover as a 10.5-point home 'dog tonight versus Robert Morris.
IUPUI is an ugly 4-25 this year and has won a whopping one game in conference play. They have, however, been a good against-the-spread (ATS) bet, going 16-11 ATS for the season, including 7-2 ATS at home. Over their last 10 games, the Jaguars have covered eight times. They've been a double-digit home underdog in seven games this year and have posted a 6-1 ATS mark in those contests.
Robert Morris beat IUPUI by just seven points at home earlier this campaign, and they're at a rest disadvantage tonight. The Colonials' previous game was on Tuesday while IUPUI hasn't played since last Sunday.
The Jaguars are projected to lose this game by just 6.8 points, according to our numbers. We have them covering 60.9% of the time. Barttorvik also likes IUPUI to cover, projecting them to lose by 7.9 points.
There's also some value in taking IUPUI to win outright if you're feeling frisky. Their +480 moneyline price is selling them short. Barttorvik gives them a 21% chance to win, which comes out to a +376 moneyline. We have the Jaguars' win odds at 25.4% (+294 moneyline).
Portland at San Francisco
Over 152.5 (-115)
Two over-friendly teams tangle tonight on the West Coast.
Barttorvik slots San Francisco 80th in adjusted tempo and 88th in offense. Portland has a similar profile, ranking 69th in adjusted tempo and 88th in offense. These teams play fairly fast and have quality offenses, and it's led to a good amount of overs for both sides.
The over is 7-3 in San Fran's last 10 games, including 5-1 in the Dons' last six home matchups. The over is 7-4 in Portland's past 11 games.
The over/under is routinely pretty high for both of these teams. Across the Pilots' last 11 games, Portland has had just two contests with a total at 152.5 or lower, and the over won out in both. The over is 4-2 in the Dons' past six games in which the total was 152.5 or lower.
We project there to be 155.6 points in this game, Barttorvik sees even more points, forecasting a total of 158.0. The over checks a lot of boxes.
