College Football Betting Guide: Saturday 10/10/20
Last week proved to be tough as Texas lost a controversial home game to TCU and our bets went 1-2. The Longhorns look to bounce back against archrival Oklahoma on Saturday, but our model likes a couple of big favorites this week instead. Bettors should be ready for action this weekend as there are four matchups between ranked teams, not including the Red River Rivalry. We’ll cover two of those below.
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110-spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you are seeing the most updated information.
Georgia -12.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Georgia smoked Auburn last weekend, proving that they’re a legitimate title contender. The Bulldogs gained more than double the yards that the Tigers did en route to a 27-6 victory. Quarterback Stetson Bennett performed well, completing 60.7% of his passes for 240 yards, after he took over the signal-calling duties in Georgia’s first game against Arkansas. Headcoach Kirby Smart benched D’Wan Mathis after a poor first half against the Razorbacks, and Mathis got the start because the expected starter, Jamie Newman, opted out before the season and transfer J.T. Daniels was sidelined with a knee injury. Bennett played well against Arkansas and Auburn and it seems that the Bulldogs have found their way on offense as a result.
Although their offense is ranked the worst out of any SP+ top 10 teams at 38th, Georgia has the best defense in the country by the same metric. Tennessee has a top 10 defense as well, but their offense ranks just 51st. The Bulldogs’ secondary is particularly great, with three members in the top 100 NFL prospects according to CBS Sports. If Georgia can force Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to have to throw into tight windows, the Volunteers will have a difficult time moving the chains on Saturday.
Georgia has a 67.16% likelihood to cover according to our model, which ranks the Bulldogs as the best team in the country through Week 5. Tennessee is receiving 69% of the bets on the spread, but only 46% of the money per oddsFire. This type of discrepancy is a possible signal of sharp money being on the Bulldogs, as those numbers imply fewer, yet larger bets on Georgia, likely being placed by professional bettors.
Clemson -14.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Hurricanes travel to Clemson this Saturday for a major test for their program. Miami started the season with an easy win over UAB and followed it up with a road win over Louisville and a blowout win against Florida State. In the process, quarterback D’Eriq King has become a serious Heisman contender, with odds to win at 9-1 currently on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Hurricanes are our model’s 10th ranked team, but the Tigers have far more talent on their side.
Clemson is loaded on offense with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, who will likely be the first overall pick in next year’s NFL draft. Lawrence is surrounded by some serious weapons, even without receiver Justyn Ross who is out for the season; Travis Etienne is arguably the best NFL prospect at running back, and highly touted 2019 recruit Frank Ladson Jr. is making an impact at receiver, averaging almost 20 yards per catch. Overall, Clemson’s offense ranks third in SP+, only behind Alabama and Ohio State, and even though Miami’s defense ranks sixth, the Tigers have the talent and experience to hang a lot of points on the Hurricanes.
Clemson’s probability of covering is 67.84% per our model, which would net bettors a 29.50% return. Currently, the spread isn’t ideal for Clemson backers, since the number is on the wrong side of 14, but the Tigers are still a great bet at -14.5. As always, check oddsFire to make sure you know which sportsbook as the best line and price.