College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/29/20

The Mountain West is back, and it provides us with an evenly matched Thursday night game between Fresno State and Colorado State.

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

South Alabama vs Georgia Southern

Under 51.5 Total Points: 3 Stars out of 5
Georgia Southern -3.5: 2 Stars out of 5

Georgia Southern is off to a 3-2 start to the season, despite playing a fairly difficult schedule. The Eagles have already matched up with two ranked opponents Louisiana and Coastal Carolina), and although they lost both games, both were tied heading into the fourth quarter.

Georgia Southern relies on their running game, as quarterback Shai Werts only has 558 yards throwing in the first five games of the year. Werts provides additional yards on the ground with 333 rushing yards so far this year. Their option offense is successful at slowing down the game and should result in a low-scoring matchup with South Alabama.

Georgia Southern currently stands at 3.5-point favorites, and we give them a 61.46% likelihood to cover that spread. We project a final score of 26.43-18.59, so we also like the under, giving it a 62.71% likelihood.

Colorado State vs Fresno State

Fresno State +1.5: 3 Stars out of 5

This is a difficult game to predict because Colorado State has yet to play this season and Fresno State has only played one game, a 34-19 loss to Hawaii. There was not much separating these teams last season: both went 4-8 on the year, although Colorado State did win the regular-season matchup 41-31.

Our models agree there is little to separate these two teams. Unlike the books, we actually give Fresno a slight edge with a projected final score of 29.85-26.79. We give Fresno a 63.5% chance to cover, making this a 3-star bet for Thursday night. We are expecting Fresno State to win the turnover battle and exploit Colorado State’s weak rushing defense, as we have the Bulldogs with 171.27 rushing yards for the game.