College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/7/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Coastal Carolina vs Arkansas State

Coastal Carolina -19.5: 4 Stars out of 5

Coastal Carolina has quickly established themselves as the dominant force in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers went 8-0 in the conference last season, have started this season 1-0 in the conference, and 5-0 overall. Coastal are 16-1 over the last two seasons with their only loss coming in overtime against Liberty.

Coastal has once again breezed through most of their schedule this season, winning 4 of their 5 opening games by 27 points or more.

Arkansas State has struggled this season going 1-4 with their only victory coming against Central Arkansas of the FCS. They lost one-score games to Memphis and Tulsa but they have also been blown out by Washington (52-3) and by Georgia Southern (59-33). Their defense is certainly a major concern, as the Red Wolves are conceding 45.6 points per game this season and this is a dangerous matchup since the Chanticleers are averaging 48.2 points per game on the year.

Our model believes this game will be a blowout, projecting a 47.27-21.92 victory. Overall we give Coastal a 68.97% chance to cover the 19.5 point spread, making it a 4-star bet.

Houston vs Tulane

Houston moneyline (-230): 1 Star out of 5

Houston are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming to a 4-1 Texas Tech team in week one. Houston have won their other 4 games rather easily, winning by an average of 31.25 points against Rice, Grambling (FCS), Navy, and Tulsa.

Tulane is not having a great season at 1-4 and their defense has been a major issue. The Green Wave have conceded 40 points or more in three of their four games against FBS opponents so far this season. Tulane even gave up 20 points against Morgan State, which is the most points Morgan State has scored all season despite playing an FCS schedule.

Houston is a strong favorite at -230 but our model gives them a very strong 72.12% chance to win outright. Even at the -230 moneyline, we still like Houston to win as a 1-Star bet as it is clear they are the far superior team.