College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/11/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh

Over 73.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Pitt (-6.5): 2 Stars out of 5

North Carolina is coming off an exciting 58-55 victory over ranked Wake Forest. The Tar Heels have turned it on offensively over the past few weeks, scoring 45, 34, and 58 points in their last three games. All three games have gone over the 73.5 point total and the average total points have been 92.67! North Carolina is proving to be an elite offensive team in the ACC while still struggling mightily on the defensive side.

Pittsburgh has similarly played great offensively, much of this season. The Panthers are 7-2 on the year -- mostly on the backs of their high-powered offense. Pitt has scored 40 or more points in six of their nine games, and they are averaging 45 points per game on the year.

Unsurprisingly, our model projects a high-scoring game with Pitt projected to win by a final score of 42.14-31.95. We give the Panthers a 60.93% chance to cover the 6.5 point spread, and we give the over a 57.55% chance of hitting.

We like both as two-star bets for Thursday.