College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/12/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cincinnati vs South Florida
Cincinnati -23.5: 3 Stars out of 5
The undefeated Bearcats are still in the playoff mix at 9-0, but many critics were unimpressed with their modest 28-20 victory against Tulsa last weekend. Still, Cincinnati has an average margin of victory of 23.67 this season, and they are averaging 38.56 points per game behind the stellar play of star quarterback Desmond Ridder.
South Florida is 2-7 on the season; one of their victories was against FCS opponent Florida A&M, so they are only 1-7 against the FBS this year. The Bulls' defense has been the root of their problems this season. They have ceded 34.33 points allowed per contest.
Our model does not like the Bulls' chances in this one, predicting a final score of 40.55-13.18 in favor of the Bearcats. We give Cincinnati a 63.6% chance to cover the spread -- good enough for a three-star bet.
Wyoming vs Boise State
Boise State -13.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Boise State is only 5-4 this season, but they are not far off from their typical level. The Broncos lost by one score or less to Central Florida, Oklahoma State, and Air Force. They also defeated Brigham Young and Fresno State on the road. Those two were ranked 10th and 23rd at the time of the victories, so Boise certainly still has tons of talent.
Wyoming has had a strange season starting the year 4-0 and then losing their next four games. The Cowboys are 1-4 in the conference and are averaging just 13.8 points per game in those five matchups. Our model thinks Wyoming will continue to struggle offensively against the Broncos, as we project them to score just 17.31 points in this game.
We project a 67.62% likelihood of Boise State covering the 13.5 point spread, making this a four-star bet for Friday night.
