College Football Betting Guide: Saturday 11/13/21

For a third week in a row, Notre Dame bailed us out with a cover, this time against Navy. The Irish have to travel to Charlottesville this week to play Virginia, who is probably their toughest opponent left on their schedule.

Besides that game, there are several others that have serious playoff implications, too. Both Michigan and Oklahoma have difficult road trips where they'll play Penn State and Baylor, respectively. Ohio State and Oklahoma State host two teams that played spoiler to playoff contenders last week in Purdue and TCU, respectively.

All this means for bettors is that we have yet another exciting slate to break down.

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110-spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you are seeing the most updated information.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears

Baylor +6.5 (-110): 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Bears lost a tough one to TCU last week, which means they’re likely eliminated from the playoff race. Baylor allowed the Frogs to gain 562 total yards, with 468 coming through the air, and Bears quarterback Gerry Bohanon tossed two interceptions. Oklahoma has one of the most potent offenses in the country, and Baylor won’t be able to get away with another performance like last if they want to play spoiler to the Sooners.

Baylor allowed the most points to any opponent last week, and there’s reason to believe they’ll regress toward their season average in terms of defense despite the Sooners’ proficiency on offense. The Bears are in the middle of the pack in yards allowed per game in the Big 12, just ahead of Oklahoma, and their performance against TCU hurt their average. The key for the Bears will be to pressure Sooner quarterback Caleb Williams. Baylor is 22nd in sack rate on standard downs, per Football Outsiders, which could be a problem for Oklahoma if the Sooners come out throwing on early downs. However, the Bears will need to keep the Sooners in long third-down situations because they’ve struggled to pressure opponents in passing downs, ranking 106th nationally in the split.

The mismatch for Baylor comes on the ground with their rushing offense, which is far and away the best in the conference; the Bears average 230.9 rushing yards per game, and Texas is second with 201.4. Running back Abram Smith is the biggest reason for Baylor’s success as he’s gained more than 1,000 yards and is averaging 7.3 yards per rush.

If Baylor can tighten the screws on defense and take advantage of using Smith in the running game on offense, they can keep this game close with the Sooners. The Bears have a 74.0% probability of covering the spread, according to our model, which is good for a five-star rating.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss +2.5 (-112): 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Aggies overcame a sluggish start on offense to put away Auburn in the fourth quarter last week at home, but the trip to Oxford might prove to be more difficult. Heisman candidate Matt Corral has led Ole Miss to a 6-2 record, and the Rebels have the fifth-best offense nationally, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings. The Aggies have the seventh-ranked defense in the SP+ rankings, but facing Corral is a challenge unlike any other they’ve faced thus far.

Texas A&M has a 7.0% sack rate, which is 53rd nationally, and they’ll need more pressure to contain Corral and company. The Aggies have a legitimate NFL-caliber defensive lineman in DeMarvin Leal, but they’ll need the rest of their defense to step up. Ole Miss is the best offense in the SEC in terms of yards gained per game, and Corral is their leading passer and rusher. Texas A&M will need a superb game plan and performance to contain him.

While the Rebels don’t have a great defense, that won’t matter as much if this game is a high-scoring one, because Texas A&M doesn’t have the offensive personnel to keep up. The Aggies have top NFL prospects in running back Isaiah Spiller and receiver Ainias Smith, but backup quarterback Zach Calzada has been underwhelming since he took over for an injured Haynes King.

Our model gives Ole Miss a 72.4% chance to cover the spread, which means we have another five-star bet for Saturday.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee +19.5 (-105): 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Volunteers make it three five-star bets this week, and even though they’re up against the Georgia juggernaut, they should be able to keep the game within three scores at home.

Success for Georgia has mostly been driven by their otherworldly defense, which features several future NFL players. The Bulldogs are 35th in average line yards on defense, per Football Outsiders, and Tennessee is ninth in the same statistic on offense. The Volunteers will have to take advantage of that matchup up front, because Georgia is first in just about every other defensive category.

Tennessee has a dual-threat quarterback in Hendon Hooker, who is the second-leading rusher on the team with 457 yards. Hooker, along with the Volunteers’ leading rusher Tiyon Evans, will have to consistently move the chains to stay in the game versus the Bulldogs’ defense, but they have a small margin for error. If Hooker and Evans can limit turnovers, the Voles' offensive line could give them space to move the ball down the field.

Tennessee has a whopping 78.8% probability of covering the spread, per our algorithm, which gives us a trifecta of five-star bets. Georgia is dominating the competition this year, but the Volunteers proved last week they can hang with good teams with a win on the road against Kentucky.