College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/18/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Louisville vs. Duke
Louisville -19.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Over 60.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Louisville is 5-5, and they have a chance to clinch a bowl berth against Duke on Thursday night. This will likely be the Cardinals' best chance to secure a bowl spot, as Duke is 3-7 (0-6 in ACC play) and on a six-game losing streak.
Louisville is 5-5 (3-4 in the ACC), and three of their losses have come by 6 points or less. The Cardinals showed their offensive potential in a 41-3 stomping of Syracuse last week behind a beautiful performance from dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham, who threw for four touchdowns and ran for another against the Orange.
Cunningham and the Cardinals have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances on Thursday, as Duke has given up an average of 44.0 points per game during their six-game slide.
Our model projects Louisville to score 49.69 points against the Blue Devils in a blowout victory. We give Louisville an 80.3% chance to cover as 19.5-point favorites, and at a line of 60.5 points, we think the over wins out 71.3% of the time.
