College Football Market Share Report: Saturday of Week 13
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
You may need it more than ever, too.
FanDuel has split main slates as FBS college football divides its Week 13 -- many of them rivalry games -- into two days every Thanksgiving weekend. This weekend, more irregular teams have found their way onto the Friday and Saturday main slates. Players that end up in the perfect lineups may be players you've never heard of. Yet.
With that in mind, this edition will take a peek at Saturday's 14-game slate. Let's ride.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
So much for taking it easy off an injury. Brennan Armstrong ($10,700) hurled 50 pass attempts as Virginia played catch-up with Pitt a majority of the afternoon. Armstrong's full workload just green lights the top quarterback option on just about every slate he has a workable matchup. Armstrong has added seven rushing scores to 404.4 passing yards per game, and the 60th-ranked Virginia Tech defense isn't particularly menacing when trying to justify avoiding him.
Sean Clifford ($8,700) isn't on this report because he missed last week's game with an illness. Christian Veilleux (8,700) started in his place and fired 24 pass attempts, but either quarterback that gets the nod for Penn State at an identical salary is a can't-miss value option. The Michigan State defense is still 130th of 130 FBS teams against the pass (360.6), and it's by over 40 yards per game. They're lost on the back end, and Clifford -- who should be the guy -- enters already having eclipsed 300 yards passing in two of his last three contests.
It's far from sexy, but an opportunity for value is Zach Calzada ($6,600). Calzada has eclipsed 250 yards passing twice this season in 10 starts, so it's not like he's been thrashing teams, but he will get plenty of opportunity in a game against Louisiana State. LSU is 90th against the pass this season, and Calzada has two clear stacking options with Anias Smith ($7,000) and Jalen Wydermyer ($6,300). The backfield is a full-blown committee, so this is the only viable way to attack LSU if one chooses to with any Aggies.
|Brian Robinson Jr.||ALA||27.0||19.0||53.8%||3||7.7%|
|Pat Garwo III||BC||25.0||17.8||49.6%||1||1.5%|
|Master Teague III||OSU||21.0||9.4||19.0%||0||0.5%|
|Chris Rodriguez Jr.||UK||16.0||17.1||53.3%||0||5.9%|
|Rodney Hammond Jr.||PITT||15.0||9.5||22.0%||0||1.4%|
|LJ Johnson Jr.||TXAM||11.0||5.3||5.9%||1||0.3%|
The core play of the week, personally, is Pat Garwo III ($7,700). The Boston College running back got 25 carries last week, which was was his third straight game over 24. Garwo also punched in a short touchdown to give claim to the goal-line work as well. The Eagles will need to slow down the high-powered Wake Forest Demon Deacons, and you can run on Wake. The Deacs are 118th in the country in rushing yards per game allowed (221.5), and Garwo should get plenty of opportunities.
I'm avoiding a stud that I badly wanted to use this week in Syracuse's Sean Tucker ($8,800). Pitt is incredibly strong against the run (2.9 yards per carry allowed; eighth-best in FBS), which has to alter Cuse's plans despite using Tucker for 21.1 carries per game on average normally. That was even seen last week as Tucker was limited to 13 carries in a negative game script for the Orange. I'd love to stack this game, but Syracuse is also 39th against the pass, which hurts Kenny Pickett ($10,600) and the Panthers as well. There might be better spots on a 14-game slate.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($10,000) is a building block despite a stiffer matchup against Auburn. Robinson has seen 26 and 27 carries, respectively, in the last two competitive games that Alabama has played. The 19.5-point spread is slightly concerning, but numberFire's model is still projecting a gaudy 42.79 team total for the Crimson Tide. Robinson likely will have a hand in that if the road team pulls away from their bitter rival.
|John Metchie III||ALA||13.0||33.3%||8.9||26.8%||23.7%|
|John Paul Richardson||OKST||8.0||23.5%||4.0||5.6%||3.9%|
|Moose Muhammad III||TXAM||5.0||27.8%||3.3||3.2%||4.5%|
It may sink me, but I'm inclined to fade what is likely to be the overwhelming chalk of Garrett Wilson ($9,400), Chris Olave ($9,300), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600) from the Ohio State Buckeyes. All three paid off with scores in a cakewalk matchup last week with Sparty. As mentioned, MSU is dead last in the entire country in pass defense. This week, Michigan is the eighth-best team (178.4 yards per game) against the pass in the nation. Expect CJ Stroud ($11,000) and company to have a much harder day at the office.
With Jaylen Warren ($8,400) banged up, Oklahoma State turned to their star wideout Tay Martin ($8,200) in a huge way. Martin saw a season-high 13 targets in an exclusively positive game script against Texas Tech. Spencer Sanders ($8,200) had success throwing the ball as a result. That tune-up was an important one to take advantage of the Oklahoma defense by the path of least resistance; the Sooners are 115th in the country against the pass (276.0 yards allowed per game).
Jahan Dotson ($9,000) and Wan'Dale Robinson ($8,800) are seamless pivots off the Ohio State guys. Dotson stacks well with Sean Clifford. He's seen 11.8 targets per game this season, and as covered at length, Michigan State is absolutely terrible defending the pass. As for Robinson, he's seen 38.8% of Kentucky's targets this season as the Wildcats face a friendly matchup for their aerial attack. Louisville is allowing the 25th-most passing yards per game (264.7), and Robinson's game is a tremendous one to stack opposite the sensational Malik Cunningham ($10,800).
In a reverse trend to most weeks, I want to spend up at receiver this week. Dotson and Robinson are joined by Jordan Addison ($9,700) and A.T. Perry ($9,200) as high-volume targets that could explode.