College Football Market Share Report: Conference Championship Week
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
This week's Saturday main slate falls predictably short of the usual 14-game schedule. There are only conference title games this weekend, and the MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West, AAC, Big XII, SEC, ACC, and Big Ten title games are the eight on Saturday. Hence, an eight-game slate! Even I can do that math.
Volume will be critical; these games have some of the best defenses in the country. A third-string wideout in a great matchup isn't a viable strategy this weekend. We need the top options in each offense with points at a premium.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Team Name |
Week 12 ATT |
2021 ATT/G |
2021 YPA |
Rush ATT/G |
Rush YDS/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | ALA | 51.0 | 35.1 | 9.25 | 0.8 | 17.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | PITT | 38.0 | 38.8 | 8.75 | 2.1 | 31.8 |
| Blake Shapen | BAY | 34.0 | 14.5 | 7.17 | 2.5 | 17.0 |
| Sam Hartman | WAKE | 32.0 | 35.3 | 8.78 | 2.5 | 38.8 |
| Dustin Crum | KENT | 32.0 | 27.7 | 8.42 | 6.5 | 62.1 |
| Spencer Sanders | OKST | 30.0 | 26.5 | 7.53 | 8.1 | 44.2 |
| Clayton Tune | HOU | 30.0 | 30.0 | 8.37 | 2.3 | 23.0 |
| Desmond Ridder | CIN | 28.0 | 27.9 | 8.87 | 5.8 | 40.1 |
| Chase Brice | APST | 24.0 | 28.2 | 8.59 | 2.1 | 14.5 |
| Logan Bonner | UTST | 22.0 | 31.4 | 8.67 | 2.8 | 15.0 |
| Levi Lewis | ULL | 22.0 | 27.6 | 7.37 | 4.0 | 27.9 |
| Stetson Bennett | UGA | 20.0 | 16.6 | 10.84 | 2.0 | 24.5 |
| Lucas Johnson | SDSU | 20.0 | 17.5 | 5.65 | 3.0 | 22.2 |
| Cade McNamara | MICH | 19.0 | 23.8 | 8.03 | 2.0 | 5.4 |
| Jordon Brookshire | SDSU | 16.0 | 20.4 | 7.02 | 4.4 | 38.8 |
| Alex Padilla | IOWA | 14.0 | 14.0 | 6.10 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Spencer Petras | IOWA | 13.0 | 23.4 | 6.52 | 2.5 | 4.9 |
| Ethan Hampton | NILL | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.30 | 2.0 | 12.0 |
When balancing salary, matchup, and volume, Spencer Sanders ($8,400) appears to have the best spot. Baylor is just 77th against the pass (238.4 yards per game allowed) this season, and Sanders was trusted to eclipse 30 pass attempts on Saturday for the fifth time this season. The Bears are strong against the run (11th), and a banged-up Jaylen Warren ($8,200) probably doesn't help Oklahoma State's ground attack.
The top, though, is the top for a reason. Sam Hartman ($11,500) and Kenny Pickett ($11,000) square off in a battle with a 71.5-point total that shatters all but one total on the slate. Pitt's 54.1% pass rate is tops on the slate, and Wake Forest's is fourth, but Alabama and Houston ahead of them have difficult outlier matchups. Hartman's posted a rushing score in six of his last seven games, so his higher salary is definitely worth the trade-off in pass rate compared to Pickett.
The one top-shelf quarterback I'm out on is Desmond Ridder ($10,000). The big name at a lower salary may draw popularity, but both Cincinnati and Houston are top-10 in yards per play in all of FBS. numberFire's model loves the under in this game as a result, and that's not great news considering Ridder also has been held under 30 passing attempts by his coaching staff in 6 of his 12 games this year. The higher-salary quarterbacks are worth prioritizing.
Running Backs
| Player | Team Name |
WEEK 12 RUSH ATT |
2021 RUSH/G |
2021 RUSH SHARE |
WEEK 12 TGT |
2021 TGT SHARE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abram Smith | BAY | 30.0 | 17.9 | 45.4% | 2 | 5.4% |
| Hassan Haskins | MICH | 28.0 | 20.3 | 49.3% | 3 | 4.8% |
| Marquez Cooper | KENT | 24.0 | 17.7 | 42.7% | 2 | 4.2% |
| Tyler Goodson | IOWA | 23.0 | 19.8 | 58.8% | 1 | 10.8% |
| Jerome Ford | CIN | 19.0 | 16.4 | 48.8% | 0 | 5.1% |
| Christian Turner | WAKE | 18.0 | 9.0 | 26.3% | 0 | 1.7% |
| Jaylen Warren | OKST | 18.0 | 19.8 | 48.9% | 4 | 7.3% |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ALA | 16.0 | 18.7 | 54.2% | 4 | 7.8% |
| Greg Bell | SDSU | 15.0 | 17.5 | 46.7% | 1 | 2.1% |
| Rodney Hammond Jr. | PITT | 15.0 | 10.1 | 24.1% | 2 | 1.8% |
| Quinton Cooley | WAKE | 14.0 | 7.4 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| Vincent Davis | PITT | 13.0 | 9.9 | 31.6% | 2 | 5.5% |
| Xavier Williams | KENT | 13.0 | 9.8 | 23.5% | 1 | 1.8% |
| Jevyon Ducker | NILL | 13.0 | 16.5 | 32.5% | 0 | 1.0% |
| Emani Bailey | ULL | 13.0 | 7.9 | 16.8% | 2 | 2.9% |
| Trestan Ebner | BAY | 12.0 | 11.5 | 29.1% | 4 | 9.9% |
| Chris Smith | ULL | 11.0 | 12.1 | 34.3% | 1 | 5.4% |
| Calvin Tyler Jr. | UTST | 10.0 | 15.2 | 34.3% | 1 | 3.9% |
| Trey Sanders | ALA | 10.0 | 6.3 | 13.2% | 2 | 1.0% |
The matchup is abysmal, but Tyler Goodson ($6,200) is a staple in just about every lineup to get back to the Pitt/Wake Forest points bonanza. Michigan is 20th against the run in all of FBS (122.5 yards per game), but you know who is 19th? Ohio State. The Buckeyes gave up 297 yards and 5 touchdowns to UM's strong rushing offense last week. It's possible, and Goodson has the largest rush share on the slate. He sees passing work if Iowa trails (10.8% target share; 4th on the Hawkeyes), as well.
I don't feel that same comfort with Christian Turner ($5,800). Yes, he got 18 carries last week against Boston College, but that was in a hyper-positive game script, and Christian Beal-Smith ($6,000) is listed higher on the depth chart. Their top-salaried back Justice Ellison ($6,500) may return from injury this week, as well. The three have split work fairly evenly when active, so I don't feel the need to chase potential touchdowns with Goodson's monstrous role lurking in this area.
At the top of the salary pool, I will prioritize Marquez Cooper ($8,800). Cooper has seen 20-plus carries in four straight games, and Northern Illinois is giving up an abysmal 225.9 rushing yards per game (120th in FBS). That's a matchup to target on a normal, full slate. Many will look to Hasaan Haskins ($9,500) after his five-tuddie game, but Michigan carries just a 28.3 implied team total. Kent State's implied total is 39.0 points. Cooper could be the one with three-plus touchdowns this week.
Wide Receivers
| Player | TEAM NAME |
WEEK 12 TGT |
WEEK 12 TGT SHARE |
TGT/G | 2021 TGT SHARE |
2021 REC YDS SHARE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III | ALA | 22.0 | 48.9% | 10.0 | 29.2% | 25.5% |
| Jordan Addison | PITT | 13.0 | 37.1% | 10.0 | 26.5% | 31.9% |
| Jesse Matthews | SDSU | 12.0 | 35.3% | 4.8 | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| Tay Martin | OKST | 12.0 | 41.4% | 8.5 | 29.7% | 32.9% |
| Dante Cephas | KENT | 11.0 | 33.3% | 8.5 | 30.6% | 35.4% |
| Alec Pierce | CIN | 10.0 | 35.7% | 6.2 | 22.2% | 26.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | HOU | 9.0 | 27.3% | 9.2 | 28.8% | 31.5% |
| Keshunn Abram | KENT | 9.0 | 27.3% | 5.4 | 19.5% | 21.7% |
| Deven Thompkins | UTST | 8.0 | 33.3% | 11.6 | 34.1% | 42.5% |
| Tyquan Thornton | BAY | 8.0 | 26.7% | 7.5 | 30.6% | 32.5% |
| Lucas Krull | PITT | 7.0 | 20.0% | 4.3 | 11.5% | 9.5% |
| Corey Sutton | APST | 7.0 | 31.8% | 7.6 | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| A.T. Perry | WAKE | 7.0 | 22.6% | 8.3 | 24.8% | 29.4% |
| Jeremy Singleton | HOU | 7.0 | 21.2% | 4.1 | 11.8% | 14.4% |
| Trayvon Rudolph | NILL | 7.0 | 77.8% | 6.1 | 24.3% | 35.3% |
| Drew Estrada | BAY | 7.0 | 23.3% | 4.1 | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Keagan Johnson | IOWA | 7.0 | 29.2% | 4.8 | 14.6% | 16.0% |
| Jaquarii Roberson | WAKE | 7.0 | 22.6% | 8.0 | 23.8% | 27.0% |
| Elijah Kothe | SDSU | 6.0 | 17.6% | 4.2 | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| Sam LaPorta | IOWA | 6.0 | 25.0% | 5.3 | 21.4% | 22.7% |
| Donald Stewart | WAKE | 6.0 | 19.4% | 4.2 | 12.4% | 9.1% |
| Tyrell Shavers | SDSU | 6.0 | 17.6% | 4.0 | 15.4% | 9.9% |
| Jake Herslow | HOU | 6.0 | 18.2% | 3.3 | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Blaine Green | OKST | 6.0 | 20.7% | 2.4 | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| Adonai Mitchell | UGA | 5.0 | 26.3% | 3.9 | 15.7% | 11.7% |
| Derek Wright | UTST | 5.0 | 20.8% | 5.7 | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| Thomas Hennigan | APST | 5.0 | 22.7% | 5.5 | 19.8% | 23.5% |
| Ja'Corey Brooks | ALA | 5.0 | 11.1% | 3.0 | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Brennan Presley | OKST | 5.0 | 17.2% | 5.5 | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| Tyler Scott | CIN | 5.0 | 17.9% | 3.1 | 11.1% | 14.9% |
| Jameson Williams | ALA | 5.0 | 11.1% | 7.7 | 22.4% | 30.7% |
| Gavin Bartholomew | PITT | 5.0 | 14.3% | 2.5 | 6.0% | 7.2% |
| Errol Rogers Jr. | ULL | 5.0 | 23.8% | 3.0 | 8.6% | 6.8% |
I am more likely to allocate top dollar at receiver to Jordan Addison ($10,000) than A.T. Perry ($9,500). Addison is in a league of his own currently on the Pitt Panthers' offense. He has seen 53 targets (26.8% share) in the past four weeks, and the next highest option has seen 26. Whereas with Perry, he's seen 48 targets in their past four games, but Jacquarii Roberson ($8,300) has still seen 32. Their season-long target shares are nearly identical, as well. Perry is the better option, but we can't spend salary at every position.
It's worth noting that John Metchie III ($7,800) saw 22 targets because Jameson Williams ($8,400) was ejected in the first half for targeting. It's safe to assume the split will be far more even against Georgia's vaunted defense. Alabama still has a 28.5-point implied team total in this game, and that means these two clear standouts could be lower in popularity than they should be on Georgia's name value. Trey Sanders ($6,000) will also likely be the bellcow with Brian Robinson Jr. ($8,000) dealing with a pulled muscle. All are viable value options -- which is a crazy thing to say for Alabama skill players.
With Sanders a standout option at signal-caller, it helps that he has two crystal clear stacking options, too. Tay Martin ($8,200) has a way better role than his salary. He's seen 10.25 targets per game in his last four games, and that includes two games that were total stompings by the Cowboys. Brennan Presley ($6,200) is at 6.75 per game in that span, which is good for a 25.6% share. Martin is a value with a comparable role to the top wideouts, and Presley is a fantastic punt when needed.
