College Football Betting Guide: Friday 9/23/22
Friday's college football slate features three games.
While winners likely aren't in doubt, where can we find value when betting the action?
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 52.5 (-114) - 5 Stars
Virginia's coaching change hasn't gone well.
Their prolific offense has tumbled from 7th in ESPN's Preseason SP+ projections to 61st following Week 3. It's somewhat deserved; they scored just three points on the road at Illinois, and they just squeaked by Old Dominion last week.
Still, senior gunslinger Brennan Armstrong returned as FBS' fourth-leading passer in 2021 with his full complement of weapons back, including Keytaon Thompson and Dontavian Wicks. I believe they'll get it figured out considering the talent at play.
Syracuse has no offensive questions whatsoever. Dual-threat quarterback Garrett Shrader and running back Sean Tucker have sparked the Orange to over 30 points in every contest.
Defensively, Syracuse is 78th in yards allowed per play, and Virginia is 52nd. These aren't elite defenses by any stretch, and if UVA wasn't struggling so mightily, this total likely would have opened north of 60 points.
Our model has a five-star (i.e -- five-unit) affection for the over in this game. It sees it hitting a whopping 81.5% of the time.
Boise State -16.5 (-106) - 1 Star
This is a very similar spot for the Broncos as a few weeks ago. They were 16.5-point favorites and covered against New Mexico. Our model expects a repeat performance in this southwest trip, too.
The Broncos appear locked in on Hank Bachmeier at quarterback over dual-threat freshman Taylen Green. Personally, that just makes them more stable and similar to last year's Boise squad that finished 7-5.
UTEP won't present a stiff test. They're 125th in ESPN's offensive SP+ rankings, and they've scored just 14.0 points per game. They just turned it over seven times to that same New Mexico squad that Boise throttled. Their season highlight is probably losing to Oklahoma by less than Nebraska did.
Defensively, the Miners aren't special -- or good -- either. They're 90th in the SP+ ranks, and 77th in yards per play allowed. OU posted 492 total yards of offense.
The potential for Friday night shenanigans aside, this is a spot where Boise figures to cruise. Our model sees slight value on their spread, expecting them to cover 57.0% of the time. It loves the BSU moneyline (-850) as a four-unit bet if you can lay the juice.