NCAAF

College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 9/29/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Sep 28th, 2022

Thursday's college football slate features just one bet-worthy contest; South Carolina is facing an FCS school before Hurricane Ian arrives to cease activities in that area of the country this weekend.

However, it's -- on paper -- not a super competitive game. The Brigham Young Cougars are hosting their in-state rival, the Utah State Aggies.

Can the island game deliver a closer contest than the spread indicates, or are we reserved to looking at the total?

Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars

Utah State +24.5 (-110) - 4 Stars

The betting breakdown is a bit odd here.

71% of bets and 86% of the money are on BYU to cover this lofty spread at home, but this line hasn't budged on FanDuel Sportsbook. For an island game, I think that's peculiar and noteworthy.

Personally, the Aggies are a good package offensively here to take the points. They've returned seniors at quarterback (Logan Bonner) and tailback (Calvin Tyler Jr.) from last year's 11-win team, and they returned head coach Blake Anderson from his first season.

However, they're off to a dreadful 1-3 start with losses to Alabama, upstart Nevada-Las Vegas, and FCS Weber State (shoutout Damian Lillard). Weber is one of the best teams in FCS this year, so those teams' collective 11-1 record speaks volumes about all three. They'll all be playing in December somewhere.

Therefore, I believe Utah State should put forth better efforts soon. BYU's offense -- led by Jarren Hall -- should also be able to damage in this; USU is just 75th in the country in yards per play, but that does include the contest against 'Bama.

Our model thinks there's a healthy chance the over hits in this contest (60.4%) and that the Aggies cover the spread (68.8%). With some weather in the forecast, I'll avoid that lofty total and just back Utah State with the points. Poor weather would only slow down BYU's significant advantage in firepower.