College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/8/22
With daily fantasy football so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.
FanDuel offers college football daily fantasy contests now in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.
Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately as well! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.
It's rivalry week with a ton of in-conference rivalries, and some of them are expected to have a boatload of points on the board. Outside of a few obvious games to exclude, we can really chase volume and quality of a player's role this week.
Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.
|Texas Tech||Okla State||-9.5||69.5||30||39.5|
|N Carolina||Miami (FL)||-3.5||66.5||31.5||35|
|Ohio State||Mich State||+26.5||64.5||45.5||19|
As you can see by the litany of 60-point totals, this isn't a week to settle for a couple of so-so game stacks. A couple of these games will go bananas.
Texas Christian and Kansas have been in shootouts themselves for two weeks now, so don't expect much of a difference as they meet head-to-head. I'd say the exact same about Washington State and Southern California, too.
Interestingly, Oklahoma State (39.5) has the highest implied team total on the board. I'm giving them a nod over Georgia (39.5) because the Dawgs are 29.5-point favorites. Not all of those points will be going to starters.
Defensive Matchups and Rankings
Note: Higher numbers are easier matchups for the opposing team. Lower numbers are better rankings and tougher matchups.
|Team||Defensive Passing Yards
Per Attempt Rank (FBS)
|Defensive Rushing Yards
Per Attempt Rank (FBS)
Texas Tech can't stop a nosebleed on the ground, which is one of the reasons the Pokes have that slate-high total. My single favorite player is in that one.
The same could be said for UNC, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, but Mississippi State is likely won't punish the Hogs on the ground. Unfortunately for Arkansas, they've also got the 115th-ranked passing defense against that air raid offense.
However, the Canes are a trainwreck against the pass. They're 128th in yards per attempt allowed. In addition to them and Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Washington State round out the top-five worst pass defenses on the slate.
Considering Miami's horrendous pass defense, it's hard to see Drake Maye ($11,800) busting on this slate. The Canes' rush defense is good, and Maye can also add points on the ground. He's averaging 59.4 rushing yards per game this season. I just might target that production through Josh Downs ($9,900) instead.
Against Michigan State's 82nd-ranked pass defense, C.J. Stroud ($11,000) is on the table. The Buckeyes are 29.5-point favorites, but at least the game could be somewhat more competitive in East Lansing. Plus, Ohio State tailback TreVeyon Henderson ($8,700) is potentially out of this one like last week.
If you like quarterbacks that can move, this is a great slate. KU's Jalon Daniels ($10,600) carved up Texas Tech, so I'm not too concerned TCU will reduce the junior's scoring potential. Iowa State's solid defense shut him down last week, so he may be less popular than normal.
Hendon Hooker ($10,800) and Jayden Daniels ($9,500) will battle in Baton Rouge, and both are especially viable considering it's harder to target a specific pass catcher.
In a negative (but not too negative) script, Donovan Smith ($10,500) is a solid choice, too. It'll be better for his outlook if Myles Price ($7,700), his top wideout, can go.
There are so many studs on this slate that I'm staying away from value pocket passers. You'll need points to keep up, but in addition to Jayden Daniels below $10,000, Cameron Ward ($9,700) might be an interesting dart in a high-scoring clash with USC.
I teased my favorite play on this slate in matchups, and it's Dominic Richardson ($8,500).
Richardson got 25 carries (59.5% of the team's total carries) last week against Baylor, and now he's taking on Tech's putrid rushing defense. The 9.5-point spread isn't overly concerning for a blowout, either.
I've talked criminally little about the Red River Showdown, but Bijan Robinson ($10,700) is absolutely the headliner. He was back to a 72.4% rush share in a convincing win over West Virginia. OU's defense struggles against the run, so he's a great bet for multiple touchdowns.
Utah -- normally a super strong defense -- is 83rd in yards per attempt allowed on the ground. Zach Charbonnet ($9,800) is an excellent play as the lead back in a Chip Kelly offense.
Raheim Sanders ($9,400) got 22 carries in the worst script Arkansas will see all year against 'Bama. He's fine to dial up despite the spread against the Bulldogs.
Kendre Miller ($9,100) scored twice on the Sooners, but he's still getting just 14.0 total touches a game (33.0% rushing share). That's not even close to other guys in this tier.
Other running backs are really starting to separate from their committee during conference play, though. Travis Dye ($8.900) got 50.0% of USC's carries last week. Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,600) also saw the same percentage of Alabama's carries.
For value options, Nakia Watson ($7,200) still has a stranglehold on Wazzu's backfield. He's seen 60.4% of their carries overall. Dillon Johnson ($7,100) has also usurped Jo'Quavious Marks ($6,600) the Mississippi State lead job; he got 18 touches last week.
As mentioned, Josh Downs is a sensational play, but there's some risk there.
Since returning from injury against Notre Dame, he's only seen 13 total targets. The good news? He's caught all of them for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns. I think his 19.1% target share will get better and better as he's further up to speed. It was 38.1% last year.
Charlie Jones ($9,500) is an unreal talent for Purdue, and he leads this slate in targets per game (12.2). It's just tough to use him with any Maryland skill player outside of Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,700). UM is also a brutal matchup for opposing passing attacks, ranking 12th in yards per play allowed in FBS.
Ohio State is once again a mess. It's unknown if Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,500) will return this week. If he's out, you could consider Emeka Egbuka ($10,000) and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,700). I just kind of hope he plays so I don't have to play the guessing game of which one scores. Julian Fleming ($8,500) has also caught four touchdowns on a 9.5% target share. It's gross.
Beware of other touchdown merchants in the box score this week. Brock Bowers ($8,500) is scoring at will, but it's come on a paltry 13.7% target share. Antoine Green ($8,300) is well behind Josh Downs in target share (7.5%), but he's caught long tuddies in back-to-back weeks.
After hogging targets at Pitt, Jordan Addison ($9,300) hasn't quite put that stamp on USC's target tree. He's seen just 6.8 per game. He's capable of a home run shot at anytime in that high-scoring clash, though.
Marvin Mims ($8,100) and Xavier Worthy ($7,900) are nice pieces from the Cotton Bowl. They both got 10 targets last week, but make sure to check on both quarterbacks' health before firing up either in droves.
Jalin Hyatt ($7,300) is the Vols' lead guy with Cedric Tillman now likely out for a bit. On the other side of that one, Kayshon Boutte ($5,500) was on Biletnikoff Award watch lists before the season, and he still ran the most routes (28) of an LSU wideout last week, but he's just not getting looks. He got just two targets last week. The talent is special, though.
In his full return to action, Jayden Reed ($6,200) got 12 targets for Michigan State. It's a tough matchup, but there's very little risk at the salary.
Trey Cleveland ($5,500) ran the most routes for Texas Tech last week, who were without Myles Price for half the game. He and Xavier White ($5,400) are sensational value plays in that matchup if Price doesn't go.