College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 11/19/22
With daily fantasy football so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.
FanDuel offers college football daily fantasy contests now in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.
Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately as well! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.
Saturday's main slate is a tricky one with plenty of double-digit spreads, but a tight, high-scoring affair projected in Los Angeles looms over the entire slate. Let's dig in.
Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.
|Oregon St||Arizona St||+7.5||54.5||31||23.5|
|Boston College||Notre Dame||-20.5||42.5||11||31.5|
You can't really begin anywhere else on this slate besides Southern California and UCLA. Its total is 10 points clear of any other total, and this clash has some of college football daily fantasy's most stable contributors in action.
There are decent alternatives for tournaments, though. Bedlam should be a high-scoring battle between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, and the Longhorns and Jayhawks should play a similar game in Lawrence.
Even in the lower-totaled contests, I see defensive matchups to abuse, so I don't want to write off individual pieces. That said, the 41.5-point total in Ann Arbor between Illinois and Michigan just isn't super appealing.
Defensive Matchups and Rankings
Note: Higher numbers are easier matchups for the opposing team. Lower numbers are better rankings and tougher matchups.
|Team||Defensive Passing Yards
Per Attempt Rank (FBS)
|Defensive Rushing Yards
Per Attempt Rank (FBS)
The two schools on this slate outside the top 100 against both the rush and the pass (per attempt) are playing each other. That's why Florida and Vanderbilt are worthy of conversation for game stacks, as well.
Caleb Williams ($12,400) has an absurd floor -- especially now with Travis Dye done for the year in L.A. I wouldn't fault anyone for targeting him, but I just don't see him as the clear QB1 for the lofty tag.
First off, Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($11,400) has an easier matchup versus USC's defense in the same game, and he's broken the 30-FanDuel-point barrier four times this year. Plus, the mid-range has some options with significant upside.
KJ Jefferson ($10,200), averaging 58.8 rushing yards a game, should return for Arkansas in a projected shootout with Ole Miss. Jalon Daniels ($9,800) might also return for Kansas after missing four games with a shoulder issue. He was a Heisman hopeful with 16 total touchdowns in five games before his injury.
Two of the better dual-threat guys on this slate are facing each other in Nashville. Against the Commodores' porous defense, Anthony Richardson ($10,000) might be the top overall quarterback on the slate not accounting for salary. He's accounted for 20 of Florida's 39 scores. Dual-threat Mike Wright ($7,000) is a world-class value play on the other side after returning to Vandy's starting job three weeks ago.
DJ Uiagalelei ($9,600) always carries the risk of getting benched, but matched up with Miami's poor pass defense, he's viable at a four-digit salary. He's really helped his floor with 45.2 rushing yards a game this season.
I mostly want to stick to guys who run; there are just too many such options on this slate to think that at least one or two of them won't pop off for big games. However, the salaries of Quinn Ewers ($8,400) and Spencer Rattler ($8,000) are really enticing in games where passing will be much easier than rushing.
Running back is too deep in terms of elite workloads to get cute messing around with brutal matchups. Sorry, Blake Corum ($10,000) and Chase Brown ($9,000).
We've got several core plays in good matchups who got over 60.0% of their team's carries last week, including Zach Charbonnet ($10,600), Bijan Robinson ($10,300), Eric Gray ($9,400), Braelon Allen ($9,200), Devin Neal ($8,000), and Ray Davis ($7,900). The last two value guys will be immensely important.
I'd also throw Quinshon Judkins ($9,900) in that group given he was at 59.5% and has -- perhaps -- the best matchup of all of them in a date with the reeling Razorbacks.
Xazavian Valladay ($9,200) has a supreme workload, and he's used it to eclipse 24 FanDuel points in five of his last six. There have been some tougher matchups (UCLA and Washington State, namely) in there, too. He's fine in mini-stacks if you're targeting Beavers against ASU's awful defense.
Now two weeks removed from an illness, Richard Reese ($7,600) might also bounce back to a heavier imprint for Baylor. Austin Jones ($7,500) got 15 touches last week in Dye's stead for the Trojans, so he could be a monstrous value play in the game of the day.
We've seen Dominic Richardson ($8,600) and Raheim Sanders ($8,500) hold better roles this season than the 12 or fewer carries they got in losses last week. Quarterback injuries really stunted the pair, but I could turn back to Sanders if KJ Jefferson is cleared to face Ole Miss.
Jaylin Hyatt ($10,200) banked another long score last week, but his 26.3% target share still lags well behind his peers. Plus, Bru McCoy ($6,900) and Cedric Tillman ($6,600) will both be active in a supremely positive script for the Vols this weekend. It's a no from me, dog.
Instead, I'm opening my arms to the Buckeyes -- which I almost never do. Marvin Harrison Jr. ($10,000) has emerged as the top guy for C.J. Stroud ($11,600); he earned a 40.0% target share last week. Emeka Egbuka ($9,400) might be a better play in tournaments after logging just three targets last week but a 25.0% share for the year.
Boston College pivoted to a pass-first approach with sophomore Emmett Morehead ($7,200) the past two weeks, and Morehead led an upset of North Carolina State last week. Zay Flowers ($8,700) hasn't gotten the same slice of the pie with Morehead, but he's still seen 21 targets in two games with him. Of course, Notre Dame rarely throws, but it's usually to Michael Mayer ($7,500) when it happens.
A week healthier, Quentin Johnston ($8,500) could return closer to his 26.0% share for the year. He's a solid mini-stack with Reese in a game that figures to be tight; TCU never makes anything easy.
USC and UCLA spread it around quite a bit, but Jordan Addison ($9,000) and Jake Bobo ($8,100) are the top guys. Addison's season-long 18.1% target share is really hard to stomach at that salary, though.
Will Sheppard ($7,900) leaps right off the page as a value play against Florida's swiss-cheese-like pass defense. His 34.8% target share is second on this slate to only Mayer's. In that same vein, Trey Palmer ($7,400) has a 33.6% share for Nebraska, but his matchup with Sconny is just tougher.
We generally want wideouts in college DFS who have great roles now (target share above 30.0% last week) backed by good roles for the season (above 20.0%). Others fitting that category on this slate include Ronnie Bell ($7,200), Malik Heath ($7,100), Tre'Shaun Harrison ($7,100), and Jadon Haselwood ($7,000). Bell's matchup is the only one you'd consider difficult.