College Football Betting Guide: Saturday 12/10/22
The College Football Playoff field is set. Georgia squares off against the Ohio State Buckeyes, who get a shot at redemption after being throttled by Michigan two weeks ago.
The Wolverines will face TCU; the Horned Frogs are in despite their loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship. Ohio State has a chance to prevent an SEC team from playing in the title game for the first time since 2014 when the Buckeyes knocked off Alabama after sneaking into the field as the four-seed.
Those games will have to wait until New Year’s Eve; for now, fans will be treated to one of the sport’s classic rivalries: Army vs. Navy. The game is no longer a part of the title race, as neither team has been a contender since Roger Staubach led No. 2 Navy to a victory over the Cadets in 1963 to earn a trip to the Cotton Bowl to play No. 1 Texas, who was named national champions for that season.
Even though neither team is ranked, the game between Army and Navy is special due to the long history of the rivalry -- and the fact that the teams get this upcoming Saturday all to themselves.
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights
Under 32.5 (-110): 5 Stars
Just because this game is special doesn’t mean it will be particularly fun to watch.
Unless you’re a defense aficionado, Army vs. Navy isn’t the matchup that inspires excitement. In fact, since 2005, the under has gone 43-9-1 in games between Army, Navy, and Air Force.
Army doesn’t have a quarterback on the team that’s thrown for 400 yards. In fact, just three have each thrown for 250, 301, and 335 yards, respectively. Heisman frontrunner Caleb Williams of USC has thrown for over 335 yards in seven of the Trojans’ individual games this season to put those numbers in context.
Army does have a potential first or second-round NFL Draft prospect in linebacker Andre Carter II. While Carter hasn’t put up gaudy numbers for the Knights, he’s been a part of an effective pass defense that has held opponents to just 172.3 passing yards per game. Navy, on the other hand, has a great defensive line that ranks in the top 15 in average line yards, opportunity rate, and sack rate, according to Football Outsiders.
Our model rates this bet with five stars (out of five) because both teams are limited on offense. Navy is favored because they have a more dependable quarterback in Tai Lavatai (although he’s thrown for only 785 yards this season himself) and a respectable defense led by a solid unit up front.
Army can pull the upset if they’re able to establish their prolific running game; the Black Knights are second in the nation in rushing yards per game. Ultimately, while Army might be able to win due to their rushing attack, they’re unlikely to propel the final score over the total.
