NHL Playoffs: Second Round Preview

Ottawa Senators vs. New York Rangers

After coming out on top in their series against the Montreal Canadiens, the New York Rangers look poised to advance to the Conference Final, but this will not be an easy task as Erik Karlsson and the Ottawa Senators stand in the way. Ottawa took care of the Boston Bruins in six games, and they are trying to reach their first Conference Final since 2007.

What are they keys for each team in this series?

Tale of Two Goaltenders

Henrik Lundqvist was the clear defining factor in the Rangers' series win over Montreal, posting ridiculous numbers in the six-game series. He led the Eastern Conference goalie race in this two-week span with above-average metrics in goals against average (1.70), save percentage (.947), and goals allowed (11).

Craig Anderson, although not posting numbers like Lundqvist's, is nothing to shake a stick at, either. In his own respective six-game series, he put up solid numbers in the same categories as the King. His goals against average (1.94), save percentage (.921) and goals allowed (13) marks were all in the top five for goalies participating in the Eastern Conference playoffs. In fact, his goals against average and save percentage were both good for third-best.

The Trade

In an offseason trade, the Rangers sent fan favorite Derick Brassard over to Ottawa in exchange for up-and-coming center Mika Zibanejad, and wouldn't you know it, both players are leading their respective teams in playoff points coming into this series. Brassard was able to amass a remarkable eight points in the series, including six assists, while Zibanejad was able to amass four points, including the overtime winner that gave the Rangers a 3-2 series lead.

We expect to see fireworks between both teams, with these two players leading the charge from start to end.

The Verdict

In three regular-season games between the two clubs, we saw the Senators push the issue and defeat the Rangers -- once at Madison Square Garden and another time in Ottawa.

It is important to note however, that for the games that Ottawa claimed as victor, the Rangers has some serious roster issues. Their November matchup saw Zibanejad out of the lineup due to a broken leg, and their April victory saw seven Ranger starters out of the lineup in preparation for the playoffs.

According to our nERD metric, The Rangers are expected to beat a league-average opponent (on neutral ice) by an average of 0.44 goals per game, which ranks fifth in the league (third among teams still alive). New York has the third-best odds to win the Cup at 13.16%.

Ottawa, on the other hand, owns a 0.00 nERD, making them the clean underdog in this series.

Our models have the Rangers winning this series 63.04% of the time.