NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 10/11/19
A good chunk of you played daily fantasy football this year, and I'd be willing to bet a significant portion have also tried out daily fantasy basketball and baseball. But hockey? Hockey?
It's time to give it a try over on FanDuel because it's a ton of fun.
And our analysis and projections can help you win. To help, let's take a look at some goalies, high-priced skaters, and lower-priced players to target for today's slate.
Goalie to Target
That goalie is Petr Mrazek, who has a very modest price tag. He is going to be somewhat reliant on the win points tonight for a few reasons. He is facing off against the New York Islanders, who come in with a low 49 Corsi For this season. That means they generate a low amount of shot attempts per game, thus, limiting the potential upside for Mrazek from saves. This is nothing new for the Islanders: it’s essentially the same team from last season -- they aren’t a huge offensive threat. Mrazek winning the game -- giving up one (maybe two) goals -- but having only 20 saves is in the cards tonight. He doesn’t carry massive upside but rather safety on a small three-game slate.
Jack Eichel ($8,400): Eichel is the most expensive skater on the slate, and there is almost no reason to fade him tonight.
He is the best player on the slate, and it’s borderline crazy not to have him your lineups. Eichel comes in with seven points through four games and is averaging four shots per game. He plays on the lines you would expect for the Buffalo Sabres, the first forward and the first power-play unit. Eichel is a monster on the ice, and depending on how far you want to look into the data, you will see he holds an xGF (Expected Goals For) of 1.74. That essentially measures the goals that should be created based on the quality of his shots, not necessarily the volume.
It’s something we can look at more as the season goes on, but Eichel is good. Having him on the ice is good, and he can lead to goals, which are good. You get the picture: he can create offense on his own and should be rostered with full confidence tonight.
This game only has an over/under of 5.5, which is the lowest of the three games, so there is a chance fewer DFS players will look to this game. He has 15 shot attempts through three games and should be able to continue that strong production versus the Ducks, who are the eighth-worst in the league when it comes to Corsi Against.
The Ducks aren’t that talented on defense. All their pairings are ranked 12th or lower, which puts Atkinson -- who will have last line change at home -- in a good matchup for most scenarios.
Necas is only $3,500 tonight, which is slightly above the minimum salary, and is getting time on the first power-play unit. This isn't something we normally find, as most players on the first power-player are around $5,000 and above for the most part. He is on the third forward line, which means we lose the ice-time correlation, but on a three-game slate, we need all the value we can possibly find. He has the stats you would expect from a third-line player so far: two points and seven shots in four games is just okay. We are hoping he falls into some "free" fantasy points for simply being on the top power-play unit tonight as a home favorite.
This game has an over/under sitting at 6.0, and despite being on the road, the Panthers have a 3.07 implied goal total, which is higher than the Sabres'. This game looks to be the only one of the three tonight which has the potential to shootout with scoring going both ways. If you want to do a game stack, that is certainly viable, and a skater like Vatrano could be important for some value.
He is very cheap tonight and is playing up on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, which has 100% ice-time correlation. They all bring a bit of value, and Vatrano should be in a spot to notch his first point of the season tonight. With eight shots through three games, the opportunity is presenting itself for Vatrano. It's just a matter of capitalizing on it.