NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 1/21/21
Hockey is officially back! NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Philipp Grubauer ($8,500): The Colorado Avalanche are the largest (-260) favorites on the slate, and that should make Grubauer a clear target at goalie tonight. Although he isn't confirmed yet, Grubauer should be in net for Colorado after winning each of his last two starts. His winning streak looks like it could continue tonight against the Los Angeles Kings, who are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Kings come in with a 1.72 Expected Goal For per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is tied for the third-lowest in the league. That is tied directly to the fact the Kings have the 10th-lowest (47.44) Corsi For (Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Grubauer shouldn't be under any serious threat for the game and is likely to come away with the win.
High-Priced Skaters
Kyle Connor ($7,400): Connor skates on the first power-play unit for the Winnipeg Jets but is now on up on the first forward line due to Patrik Laine likely being out for a second game. Connor has started the season with a goal in each of his three games in addition to to assists and eight total shots. It's been a hot start to the season, and he shouldn't be slowing down tonight against the Ottawa Senators, who have the seventh-worst (57.71) Corsi Against (Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. The Jets have a 3.43-goal implied total for a reason, and you want to be trusting a goal-scorer like Connor.
Elias Pettersson ($6,900): When it comes to Pettersson, let's just say he's been a bit unlucky to start the year. The Vancouver Canucks have a solid 15 goals in their first five games, and he has only a single assist to show for it all. Why is this unlucky? Petterson is the center on the first forward line and the first power-play for the Canucks, averaging nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game. A player with his skill, playing the role he has in the team's offense, should be more involved and piling up stats. The Canucks scored five goals last night, and him not being involved in a single one is borderline impressive. Last season, he averaged 0.97 points per game and 2.3 shots per game. He is due for some positive regression after a slow start.
Value Skaters
P.K. Subban ($4,300): The New Jersey Devils make a great tournament stack tonight, and here's why: they are up against the New York Islanders, who have recorded two shutouts in three games this season. No surprise -- that isn't sustainable, especially when the Islanders have the second-worst (60.6) Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season. Subban is on the top defensive pairing and top power-play unit for the Devils, who have a sneaky good matchup tonight despite the early success from the Islanders' defense/goalies.
Alex Galchenyuk ($3,600): With Tim Stuetzle doubtful for tonight's game, Galchenyuk should remain on the second forward line and second power-play unit for the Senators. Stuetzle missed the most recent game for the Sens, and Galchenyuk stepped right in for his first game of the season, finding the back of the net once on three shots. We can get some good production here out of a player who is only $3,600. Considering his role is the same tonight, we should be looking to Galchenyuk again.
