NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 3/11/21
Hockey is officially back! NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jaroslav Halak ($7,800): The Boston Bruins are heavy -186 home favorites tonight against the New York Rangers, putting them in a spot to pick up the win. With Tuukka Rask still sidelined for the Bruins, Halak has been confirmed as the starting goalie tonight and has a very friendly salary for being this heavy of a favorite. The Rangers come into this game with a meager 2.40-goal implied total, which is the fifth-lowest on the slate. That shouldn't be a surprise since the Rangers have the eighth-lowest (50.28) Corsi For per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, while the Bruins hold the second-best (48.72) Corsi Against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The Bruins' defense has been strong for a number of seasons and preventing shot attempts is their specialty. This should help keep Halak free of pressure for the night and allow him to come away with a clean win.
High-Priced Skaters
Sebastian Aho ($7,300): With a 3.31 implied total, the Carolina Hurricanes are a clear team to target in all formats tonight. The Hurricanes are one of the elite offensive teams in the league, with the fourth-best (58.42) Corsi For this season. Despite the strong metrics, they are scoring just 2.32 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 18th in the league. However -- and a big however -- the Canes hold a league-best 2.50 Expected Goals For in the same situation. They are under-producing goals right now and in a spot for some positive regression. Aho is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. His role within the Canes' offense has been strong as of late, with 10 NHL points and 24 shots on goal in his last 10 games. That level of production should be higher -- based on their Expected Goals For -- which means Aho's salary should be even higher.
Victor Hedman ($7,000): Hedman is one of the best options -- if not the best option -- on defense every single night in NHL DFS. He skates on the Tampa Bay Lightning's first power-play unit, which gives him plenty of upside due to their goal-scoring potential. That should be on full display tonight, as they hold a 3.46 implied total on the road against the Detroit Red Wings. Besides that ceiling, Hedman has an insanely high floor of points due to his ability to fill up the stat sheet. He comes into this game averaging 2.4 shots on goal per night and 1.5 blocked shots per game. He consistently produces fantasy points even when he isn't scoring, which isn't that often since he has 25 NHL points in 24 games this season. Hedman is the ideal cash-game play on defense tonight and every night.
Value Skaters
Anthony Beauvillier ($4,200): The New York Islanders have a solid 3.19 implied goal total and draw a solid matchup versus the struggling New Jersey Devils. The Islanders are cruising right now with six straight wins while scoring five goals in three of those wins. They should keep it going against the Devils, who have allowed at least three goals in eight of their last 10 games. This should make you very interested in the top-six skaters from the Islanders, and Beauvillier's salary is the lowest among them. He is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, which has helped him rack up 5 real-world points and 30 shots on goal over the last 10 games.
Kasperi Kapanen ($4,900): The Buffalo Sabres are a mess of a team this season, and you should be stacking against them at every opportunity. That means we are looking toward the Pittsburgh Penguins and their 3.16 implied goal total. If you can't afford to get to Sidney Crosby ($8,000), Evgeni Malkin ($7,600), or Jake Guentzel ($7,400), consider Kapanen. He has a surprising 10 NHL points in his last 10 games and is seeing time on the second power-play unit, giving him some extra offensive upside.
