NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 3/29/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Philipp Grubauer ($8,100): The Colorado Avalanche are insane -430 home favorites tonight against the lowly Anaheim Ducks. Grubauer is expected to be the starter tonight, and he makes a clear cash game option, as he has an 81.1% implied win probability. Not only does Grubauer sit behind one of the league's best defenses, but the Ducks also offer very little of a threat on offense.
Colorado's defense comes into this game allowing a league-best 45.25 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) this season, along with the sixth-best (1.99) goals against, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. The Ducks' offense is only producing 2.09 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-worst in the league. Grubauer is sitting behind an elite defense and should be well on his way to a win tonight.
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,900): Not only are the Avalanche the largest home favorites (-430), but they also have the highest (3.49) implied goal total on tonight's slate. This means we are looking directly to the Avs' top forward line with MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen ($8,500), and Gabriel Landeskog ($6,800). They are all on the first forward line together, along with the first power-play unit, which should make them one of the chalkier options on tonight's slate.
MacKinnon comes in with 14 NHL points and a staggering 40 shots on goal over his last 10 games, which is 7 and 10 shots higher than the other two players on his line. This is why MacKinnon will always have the highest floor of points among them and is a great option for all formats tonight. If you can afford to pay up for the entire stack from the Avalanche, you should absolutely do so.
Shea Theodore ($6,400): It's not often I put a defender as one of the high-priced skaters to target, but the level of consistency Theodore brings to your lineups is amazing. He comes in with a loaded stat sheet this season, having piled up 25 NHL points, 83 shots on goal, and 24 blocked shots through 29 games. He will continue to skate on the Vegas Golden Knights' first power-play unit because Alex Pietrangelo is still out with an injury.
The Golden Knights are strong -225 home favorites and carry a 3.22 implied goal total, as they are set to take on the Los Angeles Kings. While the Kings went through a bit of a strong stretch earlier in the season, they have seen some regression recently. They now sit in the bottom half of the league in Corsi Against and goals allowed, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Mats Zuccarello ($5,200): The Minnesota Wild offer all kinds of value tonight and could be the key to unlocking your ability to pay up for the Avalanche, the Golden Knights, or whatever top-tier stack you choose. Not only do they offer value, but they have a great matchup versus the San Jose Sharks, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Sharks are in the bottom four of the league in Corsi Against (57.92) and goals against (2.86), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. This is nothing new, as the Sharks have been a weak defensive team for a few seasons and are very much worth attacking every night. Zuccarello has 8 NHL points and 21 shots on goal in his last 10 games with a chance to continue that success tonight.
Casey Mittelstadt ($3,000): Mittelstadt is the center on the second forward line and the first power-play for the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres are on a 17-game losing streak and are by far the worst team in the league. However, Mittelstadt is the minimum salary tonight and is taking on the Philadelphia Flyers, who are allowing 3.27 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, which is the second-worst in the league. Do I think the Sabres are good? No. Do the Flyers have a good defense? No. If you need a punt play, Mittelstadt could be the answer tonight.