NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 10/22/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Linus Ullmark ($8,200): The Boston Bruins have confirmed Ullmark will be the starter tonight, and he is going up against his former team, the Buffalo Sabres. The Bruins are massive -210 road favorites, giving Ullmark plenty of win equity, which is ideal for cash games. Although the Sabres are 3-0 to start the season, they come in with a modest 54.11 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
The Sabres are also over-producing goals right now with 2.52 goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, compared to their expected goals scored (xGA), which is sitting at 2.31 per 60 minutes. Their offense simply isn't this good and is due for some negative regression, which can start tonight. The Bruins' defense is allowing a 41.57 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-best in the league.
Auston Matthews ($8,800): The Toronto Maple Leafs are large -220 home favorites, and you should be looking directly to their top forward line with Matthews. He is on not only the top forward line but also on the top power-play unit, putting him in a spot to display the immense fantasy ceiling he has. He has just one game under his belt this season and wasn't able to find the score sheet in it but did manage to add eight shots on goal. That is where his floor of points comes from, and the ceiling comes from the offensive role.
That should be on full display tonight against the San Jose Sharks, who have the 12th-worst (56.99) Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. With a small four-game slate, it's tough to fade a player such as Matthews.
David Pastrnak ($8,200): It's been two games, and Pastrnak hasn't scored a goal. I know -- I'm shocked, as well. One of the best goal-scorers in the league has piled up nine shots on goal and hasn't been able to light the lamp. That can all change tonight with a matchup against the Sabres, a team overachieving in many areas.
The Sabres are allowing just 1.71 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, but their expected goals allowed is sitting at 2.22 in the split. As noted above, I'm buying into Ullmark against Buffalo's offense and now buying into Pasta against their defense.
Evgeni Dadonov ($4,200): With Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty both out for the Vegas Golden Knights, Dadonov has been moved up in the lineup. Dadonov was previously on the third forward line and has now been bumped up to the second line.
This is an expanded offensive role while his salary is still only slightly above $4,000. Add in his role on the second power-play unit, and the opportunities to exceed value are strong for Dadonov. The Golden Knights are taking on the Edmonton Oilers, and the over/under is at 6.5, indicating we are in for plenty of scoring.