NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/2/21

The Winnipeg Jets return home and welcome back some of their best forwards to the lineup. Where else can we find value in the betting market?

We hit on all three bets last night, so let's try to keep that riding into Tuesday night.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg Moneyline (-102) 3-star Rating Out of 5
Winnipeg +1.5 (+186) 1-Star Rating Out of 5

It's been a bit of a wild start to the season for the Winnipeg Jets.

They've had to deal with some key players missing games because of the COVID list and have had two separate trips to California already. They've managed to come out of it mostly unscathed, as their 10 points in eight games have them currently second in the Central Division. They will get those important players back and are in a great spot on Tuesday night.

The perennially underrated Kyle Connor has been great for Winnipeg this season. He's tied for second in the league in goals with seven and has the fourth-most points with 14. That has coincided with the reborn Pierre-Luc Dubois, who's finding himself more comfortable in his second year with the Jets. The Andrew Copp, Paul Stastny, and Nikolaj Ehlers line has also been great. Now, the return of Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele give the Jets forward depth that most of the league can't match.

The Jets will play host to the Dallas Stars, who haven't performed well at all to start the season. They have three wins in eight games, and none of them have come in regulation. Goal scoring has been a problem for the Stars for the past few seasons, and it continues to be. They've scored just 1.75 goals per game this season, the second-worst mark in the league.

This line has moved a ton with the news that Connor Hellebuyck will not be in net for this game. However, Eric Comrie played well in goal in his only start of the season, and right now Dallas has struggled to score against anyone. The loss of Hellebuyck is somewhat negated by the return of Scheifele and Wheeler, as Winnipeg is more capable of outscoring their problems if necessary.

Our model likes the Jets a lot in this spot, and it makes sense considering Dallas has done little to give anyone faith in them this season.

Buffalo Sabres vs. San Jose Sharks

Buffalo Moneyline (+125) 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Buffalo +1.5 (-196) 3-Star Rating Out of 5

The Buffalo Sabres have become a bit of a darling of this article, winning bets for us both times we've liked them. They were expected to be the worst team in the league this season, but they've passed that mantle to the Arizona Coyotes with some strong play to start the season. This game tonight could be the best spot yet for the Sabres.

Buffalo has exceeded expectations to start the season, and it hasn't been a total fluke. They have positive differentials in both expected goals and shot attempts at five on five, per Natural Stat Trick. It would be one thing if they just had a fluke run with a high shooting percentage and getting lucky with goaltending, but their PDO is 100.9, not too much higher than the expected number of 100.

The Sabres are still on a road trip and will be out west against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks had some last minute COVID issues on Saturday and could continue to be without players tonight.

According to Kevin Kurz of The Athletic, eight players are still on the protocol list as of yesterday. Newly included on the list was Timo Meier, who leads the team in goals and points. The Sharks' current defense group consists of Brent Burns and Mario Ferraro, and then two players who made their NHL debut on Saturday, another player who's only played 8 NHL games, and one who's played 44.

The Sharks were already the fourth-worst at shot attempt percentage at five on five coming into this game, and without a lot of their players, it might be tough for them to control the puck tonight. If the Sabres continue to compete like they have all season, they will definitely be in a strong position to win this game.

The moneyline of +125 is certainly a strong bet, but if you don't want to risk that, the puck line of +1.5 seems like a very safe play tonight.