NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 11/10/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Juuse Saros ($7,700): While going to a road goalie isn't the first choice for many in NHL DFS, Saros has a solid matchup tonight versus the Dallas Stars. Saros and the Nashville Predators are only +126 road underdogs, and he could easily come away with the win given the soft matchup. This season, the Stars are only scoring 1.35 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the lowest in the league. They also carry a 51.31 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which has them as the seventh-lowest team in the league.
The Stars aren't a strong offensive team in any capacity, and Saros could come away with a win but may lack a ceiling when it comes to the number of saves he sees.
High-Priced Skaters
Auston Matthews ($9,500): I love this matchup for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They come in with a 3.17 implied goal total against the Philadelphia Flyers, and we could be in for an offensive explosion on both sides. Let's start with the Maple Leafs, who are factually underproducing goals right now. They are scoring 1.98 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-lowest in the league. But if we look at their Expected Goals Scored (xGA) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, that's sitting at 2.89, which would put them first in the league.
Their offense is lacking right now but is due for some positive regression, and that's something you should look to jump on. That should be led by Matthews, who is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit while posting over four shots on goal per game. He has a strong floor of points due to the shots, and if the goals get going, it could be a ceiling game for him.
Kirill Kaprizov ($7,100): The Minnesota Wild are going to be a popular team tonight, and it's no secret. It's not only because we have a small three-game slate but also because they're going up against the Arizona Coyotes, who are terrible. The Wild are on the road but are the slate's largest favorites (-215) and have the highest implied goal total (3.18). So yeah, we're looking to the Wild, and that means going to their top forward line with Kaprizov.
After a bit of a slow start to the season when it comes to goals, Kaprizov has posted 2 goals in his last three games, along with a massive 15 shots on goal. Considering he is also on the first power-play unit, that volume and production can certainly continue tonight versus the Coyotes, who are allowing the fourth-most (2.98) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Value Skaters
Derick Brassard ($3,700): The Flyers versus Maple Leafs game has the best potential for scoring and is the spot to look for a game stack. If a game stack is the route you are going, you will need to find plenty of value since there are expensive options on both sides. This is where Brassard comes into play. He is only $3,700 but is seeing a significant offensive role with time on the second forward line and the second power-play unit.
He's not going to blow you away with his 7 NHL points and 10 shots on goal through 10 games, but the value is there given his role. Ideally, you'd use him in a stack with Cam Atkinson ($5,900) and Joel Farabee ($5,000) to maximize their potential upside.
