NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 11/24/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Samsonov ($8,100): The Washington Capitals are large -220 home favorites tonight against the Montreal Canadiens, and Samsonov is worth considering in net. The Canadiens are one of the weaker offensive teams in the league, only scoring 1.81 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. Samsonov has picked up three wins in a row -- and two shutouts in a row -- making him one of the hottest goalies in the league right now. While the shutouts may not continue, he has strong win equity against a weak team.
Jonathan Huberdeau ($7,600): Huberdeau has jumped to the first forward line with Aleksander Barkov out due to a knee injury, and we want to lean on him for fantasy points tonight. The Florida Panthers have a slate-high 3.81 implied goal total against the Philadelphia Flyers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Flyers come in with a 59.91 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting them as the fifth-worst team in the league in that department. They are also due for a bit of regression when it comes to the number of goals they are allowing, as their current Goals Against (2.24) is outperforming their Expected Goals Against (2.66) by a noticeable margin.
Huberdeau comes in with 18 NHL points in 18 games along with 37 shots on goal. His time on the first forward line and first power-play has him as one of the best overall options on the slate for a solid floor and a quality ceiling to reach.
David Pastrnak ($8,700): Pastrnak should be scoring more goals. That's really as simple as it gets for one of the best goal scorers in the league who only has 5 goals through 15 games. He comes in averaging 4.4 shots on goal per game, which is among the best rates in the league, but he doesn't have the production to show for it. Hopefully, his matchup against the Buffalo Sabres can help turn things around. The Sabres are allowing the eighth-most (2.79) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Pastrnak and the Boston Bruins have plenty of upside tonight.
Kyle Connor ($9,100): Kyle has taken the most shots on goal in the league. That's a fact. He has taken more shots than the great Alex Ovechkin while playing one less game. The point? Connor has an unbelievably consistent floor of points due to his shot volume every night, and his role on the first power-play unit for the Winnipeg Jets gives him a potential fantasy ceiling.
All of that should be on display tonight versus the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are in the bottom 10 of the league in both Corsi Against and Goals Allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Jason Zucker ($4,200): Zucker and the Pittsburgh Penguins are -230 home favorites and carry a 3.52 implied goal total. Both of those are among the highest on the slate, and that is due to them going up against the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks are a mess right now. Vancouver has allowed four-plus goals in four of their last six games. Zucker has 5 NHL points and 25 shots in his last 10 games, while seeing time on the second forward line and the second power-play unit. Very straightforward value play to target as a heavy home favorite.
Andre Burakovsky ($5,000): With 10 NHL points in his last 10 games, I'm surprised Burakovsky isn't more expensive. With a few injuries on the Colorado Avalanche, Burakovsky has moved up to the first power-play unit and the second forward line. The Avs have a 3.26 implied goal total against the Anaheim Ducks in a game that should see some scoring; six of the last seven games for the Avalanche have gone over the forecasted goal total.