NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 3/18/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,400): The Florida Panthers are looking to bounce back tonight versus a weak Anaheim Ducks lineup. Coming off a loss last night, the Panthers have a very winnable matchup tonight as their -225 moneyline and 3.78 implied goal total indicate. The Ducks are scoring only 2.23 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. They have scored only 11 goals over their last five games and truly lack a ton of offensive upside that would pose a big threat to Bobrovsky.
He comes in hot with four straight wins, allowing 3 goals or fewer in each of those wins and 32 saves or more in two of those four games. He has a solid combination of a floor and a ceiling due to his save volume and the win equity, which should make a viable option in all formats tonight.
High-Priced Skaters
Johnny Gaudreau ($8,900): The Calgary Flames are staggering -400 home favorites tonight and have a slate-high 4.19 implied goal total against the Buffalo Sabres. The Flames should be one of the chalkiest teams on tonight's slate given their potential to hit their fantasy ceiling tonight. The Sabres are allowing 2.89 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-worst in the league, and we compare that to a Flames' offense that scores the sixth-most goals (2.89) in the same situations. It's a very lopsided matchup, not to mention that the Sabres are on the second night of a back-to-back, while the Flames are coming off of full rest.
Gaudreau is hot right now with 15 points and 32 shots on goal in his last 10 games, putting him among the best in the league. He has five multi-point performances in that time, and with his role on the top forward line and the top power-play unit, that's what we should be expecting from him tonight at a minimum given the matchup.
Nathan MacKinnon ($10,000): MacKinnon's shot volume over the past 10 games is actually insane. There's really no other way to put it when he has 63 shots on goal in 10 games. SIXTY-THREE SHOTS. Ideally, a top-line center such as MacKinnon would have around 35 shots on goal in any 10 game span, and if he pushed it to 40 shots on goal, I'd be thrilled. He has 63, and I might pass out with excitement. He's in a spot to continue that high level of production because he's going up against the San Jose Sharks, who are allowing a 62.23 Corsi Against (total shot attempts allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is dead last in the league.
A player that has gone Super Saiyan with his shot volume is now up against the team that is the worst in the league in allowing shot attempts. It's a match made in heaven for MacKinnon, who also has 15 NHL points in his last 10 games and can easily post a multi-point game tonight.
Value Skaters
Mackenzie Weegar ($5,400): Weegar is a great option for a few reasons. First off, the Panthers have a 3.78 implied goal total and are the best offensive team in the league, so getting cheaper exposure to them is never a bad idea. Second, Weegar is a player with an extremely safe floor of points, giving him great point-per-dollar value. Over his last 10 games, he has only 4 NHL points, but that's not where his production comes from. He has 27 shots on goal and 25 blocked shots in these past 10 games. Consistent production like that should put him on your radar every night.
Derick Brassard ($3,800): As the trade deadline approaches, players are going to be on the move, and that opens up value for some teams. The Philadelphia Flyers' captain, Claude Giroux, is the number one option at the trade deadline, and it's all but certain he is going traded by Monday's deadline. In anticipation of that, he did not travel with the Flyers for their game tonight versus the Ottawa Senators.
This means we should be seeing Brassard as the top-line center and on the first power-play unit. Brassard is under $4,000 and is playing a massive offensive role. Regardless of the fact that the Flyers aren't the best offensive team in the league, he's too cheap for the new role he has. Not to mention the fact the Senators are allowing 2.70 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 10th worst in the league. It's a great matchup for a player who is clearly under-salaried.
