NHL Betting Guide: Monday 4/18/22
We're coming down the home stretch of the regular season with just about two weeks left. Let's see if we can make some money as we head into the playoffs.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Ottawa Senators vs. Seattle Kraken
Ottawa Moneyline (+102) 1-Star Rating out of 5
We hit on the Ottawa Senators last week and a few times throughout the season, so let's keep it rolling with them. No one would confuse Ottawa for a legit good team, but they have pieces who will give good efforts every night. Tonight, they will have that while also just being a better team than their opponent.
Ottawa is traveling to the West Coast to face the Seattle Kraken. The Kraken continue to struggle in their inaugural season, sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. Some people speculated that they would have a strong home-ice advantage this season, but they have a 13-21-3 record in Seattle.
Seattle's underlying numbers haven't been too bad considering their results in the win-loss columns. However, Ottawa has been a better five-on-five team than Seattle since the start of 2022, beating them in expected goals rate and high-danger chance rate. In the same timeframe, the Senators are getting much better goaltending, as their team save percentage is over two percentage points higher than Seattle's and has been the sixth-best in the league.
Both teams were sellers at the trade deadline, but Ottawa also brought in Mathieu Joseph, who has played great since joining the team. Couple that with getting some key forwards back, and you have a fairly deep group up front.
Since the deadline, Ottawa has gone a respectable 6-5-2, and the two overtime losses came against powerhouse teams in the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.
Ottawa looks like the better team here, so getting better than even money on them tonight feels like good value. Our model likes this, too, so we should be able to place this bet with some confidence.
Washington Capitals vs. Colorado Avalanche
Under 7.0 Goals (-128) 3-Star Rating out of 5
There's been a lot of talk lately about how goal scoring is up. In fact, we just saw the highest-scoring weekend since 1995-96 in terms of goals per game. It seems like we were waiting for the market to correct on that front all season, and now they may have overcorrected.
The Colorado Avalanche and Washington Capitals will play in Denver tonight, and the total has gone up to the rare seven. Seven may be more common going forward if we keep seeing goal-scoring go nuts, but for now, seven is an outlier total. It makes sense given the offensive firepower both teams possess, but they also are strong defensively, which could limit scoring in this game.
Colorado has allowed the fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this calendar year. There were some questions over their goaltending to start the season, but those questions have evaporated, as Darcy Kuemper now ranks fourth in goals saved above expected. Devon Toews will be out for this game on the blueline, but an argument could be made that this hurts Colorado's offense more than its defense. Toews has 57 points this season and was key on the second power play.
Washington exploded for nine goals and eight goals in two different games last week, but those were against the Philadelphia Flyers and the Montreal Canadiens. Tonight, they'll be facing the best team in the league. The Capitals are a solid defensive team in their own right, ranking in the top half in most defensive metrics, including fifth in shots against per 60 minutes.
A lot of the games that have been high scoring have involved a mismatch. This one isn't really like that, as we have a matchup between two playoff teams. We could see this play out more like a playoff game, which would mean more defensive responsibility and fewer scoring chances.
Our model really likes the under in this game, rating it as a three-star bet tonight.
