NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/19/22
There are some wide odds on the board as the NHL season is drawing to a close, and some teams largely have nothing to play for. However, some might be overcorrections toward public-friendly teams.
Which bets are worth a flier...some pun intended...on this 10-game slate?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Flyers +2.5 (-110) - 5 Stars
Under 7.0 (-122) - 3 Stars
Everybody and their dear mother love the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. Our model is dropping a five-star hammer on the visiting Flyers.
This puckline is -110 and giving two goals to lose by to cover. The model gives that a 99.9% chance to happen. That's not a typo.
After all, this is an NHL game, and the Leafs have been far from perfect. They've allowed the eighth-most goals in the NHL (31) this month. Philadelphia is tied for the ninth-fewest (23), but they're not a dead offense.
This game is a projected track meet with a 7.0-goal total, but of the 20 most similar games in numberFire's database, 12 either pushed or stayed under the projected goal total. If seven or fewer goals are scored in this one, it's easy to see the Broad Street Bullies keeping this within two.
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Red Wings +2.5 (-118) - 5 Stars
Under 7.0 (-118) - 2 Stars
Get used to the heavy road underdogs tonight. Our model can't get enough of them.
At a near-even-money cost, the Red Wings are also getting 2.5 goals in Tampa Bay tonight. You guessed it -- this one has a 99.9% chance according to numberFire, as well.
With the 11th-best goals-for percentage in the NHL (54.4%), Tampa has been solid in April, but they're getting a crazy amount of respect against a functional Detroit offense that's always capable behind youngsters Dylan Larkin and Moritz Seider.
The Red Wings' goals-for percentage is fifth-worst (38.9%) in that time, but we're once again getting two tallies in a game with an even lower total (6.5).
In a more direct sample, 7 of the 10 closest games to this one in numberFire's database stayed under their projected total. Laying 2.5 goals with the Bolts here is just way too steep in this projected environment.
Florida Panthers at New York Islanders
Islanders +1.5 (-146) - 4 Stars
Under 6.5 (+110) - 3 Stars
This one's a slight change -- the New York Islanders are the home side in this tilt.
They're hosting the high-flying Florida Panthers though. To no one's surprise, the Ice Cats are getting plenty of love to lay 1.5 goals on the road against an Islanders squad that definitely will play some defense.
Though their 24 goals allowed this month (tied for 12th-fewest) isn't a top-five defensive mark like it's been all season, they're still going to be a decent bet because of Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin's actually stood on his head to keep the Isles' defense that strong; they've got the third-highest Corsi Against (569) in April.
Sorokin is the great equalizer when just getting to an extra period would cash this puckline. The Isles, playing some of their worst hockey of the season the past week, still have covered a one-goal spread in 6 of their last 10 games.
numberFire's model gives a 73.0% chance they cover 1.5 goals (what, no 99.9% conviction?) in this one, and that still bests the 59.3% implied odds from a -146 price here.
