NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/24/22
This two-game cycle is far more competitive than the other. Both of these series could be easily knotted at two come tomorrow morning.
Don't believe me? Both of these games are pick 'ems. Let's do just that and pick one side.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers
Rangers ML (-110) - 1 Star
Under 5.5 (-122) - 1 Star
The Carolina Hurricanes haven't traveled well this postseason.
They've got just a 45.2% expected goals-for rate away from PNC Arena -- the fifth-worst mark of any team in the playoffs thus far. Their -10 goal differential is second-worst to only the team they dispensed in the first round (Boston).
With that the case, the Rangers can absolutely take this one just as they did Game 3. While their peripherals are skewed after that absurd game against Pittsburgh where Igor Shesterkin faced 83 shots, they still have a +7 goal differential at MSG during the playoffs.
They've also generated the third-most Corsi For (358) of any team at home during the postseason. They'll put quality offense up against Antti Raanta, who has ceded 17 goals in four road starts thus far.
numberFire's model expects the Rangers to win 54.2% of the time, and it expects there to be fewer than six goals 59.3% of the time. Both of those are one-star wagers when compared against 52.5% and 55.0% implied odds, respectively.
Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers
Flames ML (-105) - 0 Stars
Under 6.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
This series has all the makings of a blow-for-blow heavyweight boxing match. I'll side with conviction in Calgary that our model doesn't.
It does have a one-star conviction in the +1.5 puckline at -255 odds, but that's a steep price to pay for a one-goal margin in a series that's seen 28 total goals in three games.
The Flames were the best team all season in terms of expected goals-for percentage (58.5%). Edmonton, while led by a dynamic offense, was 12th in that same category overall (53.2%). It's far easier to get behind Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid as underdogs on a puckline than laying a -115 price.
The Oilers are just living and dying on the shoulders of Mike Smith. Smith is third in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this postseason (9.75). When he's been on, Edmonton can win. When he's struggled, they've lost because they've allowed the third-most Corsi Against (688) of any team in the playoffs.
It only helps that numberFire's model is very confident in under seven total tallies here. It believes this one stays short of that mark 60.0% of the time, and 13 of the 20 most similar games to this one inside the model fell short of that projected total.
A defensive struggle the rest of the series only favors Calgary. They were second in expected goals allowed this season (213.8), and Edmonton was 16th in that same category (242.3).
