Stanley Cup Finals Betting Guide: Game 6

Can the Lightning force a Game 7, or will the Avalanche be able to clinch the Cup?

The Tampa Bay Lightning won't be laying down in their attempt for three straight Stanley Cup wins. Down 3-1, they were able to win in Colorado and force a Game 6.

Now, the Colorado Avalanche are on the road in their attempt to clinch.

Here's what our model likes for tonight's action.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning Puckline (+1.5; -275) - 2 stars
Lightning Moneyline (-105) - 1 star

Under 5.5 (+108) - 1 star

Our model is once again projecting a close game with the Lightning 52.6% likely to win, making their puckline (+1.5) valuable even at -275 odds. They're 76.1% likely to cover that puckline, good for a 3.8% expected return. While the return isn't huge, the high probability over 75% is enough to make that a two-unit recommendation (i.e. a two-star option).

The -105 outright win odds come with a 2.8% expected return, and with the odds just better than a coin flip, it's limited to one-star action.

While the Avalanche are sitting at an expected goal differential per 60 minutes of 1.07 in the playoffs and the Lightning are at 0.09, the goalie advantage is there for the Lightning.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has recorded a goals saved above expected per 60 minutes tally of 0.629 in the playoffs, ranking him 5th among 19 goalies with at least five games. Darcy Kuemper (-0.356) is 16th.

Overall, the under is where our model is leaning, as well, but it's only the slightest value (0.70% expected return).

Best Player Props

Based on our projections, these are the best prop values for tonight.

Anytime Scorer
Brandon Hagel (+370) - Projected to score 23.2% of the time for expected odds of +330.
Andre Burakovsky (+360) - Projected to score 22.7% of the time for expected odds of +340.