Fantasy Hockey Strategy: Using Remaining Schedules to Identify Value
The NHL trade deadline (real and fantasy) is upon us shortly. I've taken a day off for my day gig to wait for hydro, which means I've had time to do an extensive study of the NHL schedule for the rest of the season. Here are some observations I've made for each team and corresponding transactions that should be considered as of consequence.
In the most recent edition of Changing on the Fly, we discussed the disadvantage of owning supporting players who play on teams that play the majority of their games on busy days of the NHL Schedule (Tuesday, Thursday and, Saturday). Fantasy hockey managers will often be faced with decisions on which players to play and which to bench. This is especially true in standard or shallow leagues where the available talent in the free agent pool is abundant. The best strategy with these types of player are quantity, quantity, quantity; since these are not point-per-game guys, get as many man-games into your lineup as possible and take the points as they come. Aim for supporting players playing on top lines with the game's best.
Another thing to look for is how many back to back games any give team has left. This is especially true to build a solid goaltending strategy; it is common the standard for backup goaltenders to start one of the games of a back-to-back. If you own a goalkeeper on a team with a lot of back-to-backs, you may not get as much out of him for the rest of the season as you would like.
Finally, game distribution can be extremely important in head-to-head leagues. If your star player, whom you are counting on to carry your team, only plays two games in a given week, you may not get the production from him as you would hope. Conversely, if you are streaming defensemen in a league that counts hits and/or blocks, back-to-backs present the perfect opportunity to maximize games played and perhaps get six man-games out of one position.
Anaheim Ducks (0.18 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 13
Games on Busy Days: 5
Back-to-Backs: 1
Game Distribution: 2 two-game weeks, 2 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Only having two games in each of the last two weeks of the season is a concern for Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry owners with championship aspirations. Although both players have not lived up to their first-round draft selections this year, selling them (even at a reduced return) could be a savvy move.
With only one back-to-back on the schedule, there won't be an obvious way to predict how the Ducks will manage both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson. Until Andersen is healthy, Gibson will most likely start every game; after that, it is up in the air.
Arizona Coyotes (-1.00 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 5
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 1
Game Distribution: 5 three-game weeks, 1 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Other than Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle, there isn't any fantasy value here to start with. Only one back-to-back will means no opportunities to get a Shane Doan into a lineup to accumulate games; also there will be a lot of underwhelming goaltending from Mike Smith. Next!
Boston Bruins (0.12 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 5
Games on Busy Days: 15
Back-to-Backs: 5
Game Distribution: 4 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: As they are in the thick of the wild card race in the Eastern Conference, don't expect the Bruins to put their season in the hands of Niklas Svedberg and Malcolm Subban, whose first career start earned him a swift demotion back to Providence. Tuukka Rask will have plenty of opportunity to turn his season around and try to lead the Bruins into the playoffs.
Buffalo Sabres (-1.36 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 10
Games on Busy Days: 9
Back-to-Backs: 5
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Nothing to see here for fantasy hockey. The Connor McDavid sweepstakes are the only reason to play attention in real hockey. That is all. Moving on.
Calgary Flames (0.11 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 9
Games on Busy Days: 11
Back-to-Backs: 2
Game Distribution: 4 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: If they had a starting goaltender, this would be a great situation; unfortunately Karri Ramo and Jonas Hiller have been splitting starts all season.
| Player | Games | Wins | GAA | Save % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller | 41 | 19 | 2.46 | 0.913 |
| Kari Ramo | 21 | 9 | 2.61 | 0.908 |
As far as skaters go, Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan, and company would be good trade targets; a nice evenly-distributed schedule should turn into consistent production.
Carolina Hurricanes (-0.35 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 7
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution:3 three-game weeks, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: No clear-cut number-one goaltender, and Eric Staal's number are depressed even after you take into account the time he miss due to injury. Justin Faulk is really the only viable fantasy option in Carolina.
Chicago Blackhawks (0.58 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 11
Games on Busy Days: 8
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: My colleague, Jeff Hicks already wrote on how the Patrick Kane injury affects the Blackhawks, but their schedule is as good as it gets for fantasy purposes. If you are able to pry Blackhawks from other owners in light on the Kane news, do it. Use the injury as a bargaining chip. Since Chicago is so deep, they are worth investing in in fantasy hockey.
Colorado Avalanche (-0.05 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 8
Gomes on Busy Days: 11
Back-to-Backs: 5
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Our power rankings give the Avalanche only a 9.80% probability of making the playoffs at this point. As their chances start to slip and their five back-to-back games appear on the schedule, expect Reto Berra, or perhaps Calvin Pickard, to relieve Semyon Varlamov from starting duties on more than a few occasions. His performance hasn't been enough to propel the Avs to the NHL playoffs, so don't count on him to lead your team through the fantasy playoffs.
Columbus Blue Jackets (-0.36 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 8
Games on Busy Days: 12
Back-to-Backs: 6
Game Distribution: 4 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Leading the league with six back-to-back contests means that, even when Sergei Bobrovsky returns from his groin injury, the Blue jackets will have to sit him regularly for the rest of the season; avoid acquiring him, and sell if you can. Nick Foligno has defied the odds and has kept an insanely high 18.3% shooting percentage on the season and Ryan Johansen would be a welcome addition to any team. For depth, Brandon Dubinsky and Cam Atkinson should be able to slip into lineups, as Columbus has a nicely distributed schedule.
Dallas Stars (-0.10 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 9
Games on Busy Days: 10
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Owners are waiting the return of Tyler Seguin, but Jamie Benn has registered a point (four games, six assists) in every game since Seguin got hurt. Kari Lehtonen holds no value, but John Klingberg and Trevor Daley should be more popular with fantasy owner than they are.
Detroit Red Wings (0.20 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 9
Gomes on Busy Days: 12
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 3 three-game weeks, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Henrik Zetterberg is missing time with a concussion upper-body injury, but the upcoming schedule plays in the favor of Justin Abdelkader and other supporting Red Wings. These are the types of player you want on your fantasy team to finish out the season.
Edmonton Oilers (-0.96 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 11
Games on Busy Days: 8
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 5 three-game weeks, 1 four-game week
Recommendations: It is hard to recommend any Edmonton Oilers because they are just so bad, but it is hard to argue with the 16 goals and 21 assists Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has put up this year. If he is on your fantasy roster, the Oilers' tendency to play on "Off-Days" would help a fantasy roster squeeze.
Florida Panthers (-0.47 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 3
Games on Busy Days: 16
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: "Off-Days" aren't only important for skaters. They affect goalies, too. Roberto Luongo owners are sure to be faced with many start/sit decisions for the rest of the season. Keep this in mind when considering his value from here on out. If you have three strong goalies, Luongo's schedule will probably force you to make some decisions in the near future.
The new acquired Jaromir Jagr's fantasy value has most likely raised, but his usefulness is diminished. Offensively, the Panthers are stronger than the Devils, but their schedule for the upcoming weeks should most likely relegate Jagr to many fantasy hockey benches when tough decisions have to be made.
| Category | Florida | Rank | New Jersey | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 GF60 | 2.18 | 21st | 1.85 | 27th |
| 5-on-5 CF60 | 53.4 | 20th | 44.4 | 29th |
| 5-on-5 OZFO% | 32.90% | 10th | 28.80% | 28th |
| 5-on-4 GF60 | 4.87 | 28th | 6.6 | 11th |
| 5-on-4 CF60 | 88.4 | 26th | 76.3 | 28th |
(Today I learned that New Jersey is super effective on the power play despite not taking many shot attempts.)
Los Angeles Kings (0.18 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 5
Games on Busy Days: 15
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 4 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: This would a good time to buy some stocks in the Kings; they've won eight in a row and are making a strong push towards the playoffs. Slow starts have depressed many players' values (Anze Kopitar for example), but the Kings are looking to finish strong and to defend their Stanley Cup title.
Minnesota Wild (0.12 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 6
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 5
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 2 three-game weeks, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Devan Dubnyk owners beware. You've hit the jackpot picking Dubnyk up from the free agency (if anyone drafted Dubnyk this year in anything less than a 20-team ultra deep league, prove it to me: you can write this column from here on out and I will personally anoint you a fantasy hockey sorcerer), but his marvelous run in Minnesota has end at some point. Look for one of two outcomes:
1. Coach Mike Yeo is forced to start Darcy Kuemper or Niklas Backstrom for half of the teams five back-to-backs (preferred)
2. Yeo sticks with Dubnyk for every game for the rest of the season, he starts to fatigue, and his performance starts to slip.
Either way, it is a situation to watch carefully, or maybe the time to "sell high" is now if you can find an owner to pay for your waiver-wire fortune.
Montreal Canadiens (0.39 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 6
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 2 three-game weeks, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Hold onto your Habs, and value them as your normally would; there isn't much to be worried about until the last week of the season when the Canadiens have only two games on the schedule. Montreal players will help you get to the finals, but you'll probably need to come up with a good free agent strategy in the final week to sip from the Fantasy Cup.
Nashville Predators (0.56 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 4
Games on Busy Days: 15
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 2 two-game weeks, 1 three-game week, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: With two two-game weeks and their majority of their games on "Off-Days," the Nashville Predators have one of the most frustrating schedules for fantasy hockey purposes. These reasons make owning players such as Craig Smith and Colin Wilson less palatable. On many fantasy teams they are fringe pieces and are likely to be sat during many of Nashville's 15 games on busy league nights. Having three four-game weeks is a boon for the Predators' star player players, however; Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro, and James Neal are all candidates to contribute handsomely down the stretch.
New Jersey Devils (-0.32 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 6
Games on Busy Days: 13
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 5 three-game weeks, 1 four-game week
Recommendations: Cory Schneider has already started six back-to-back games this year, so expect the Devils to continue riding him for the rest of the season. As for the rest of the team, since Jagr was traded literally as I was writing about him in this paragraph... Mike Cammalleri is the only fantasy asset, and can be shuffled in and out of lineups as the schedule permits.
New York Islanders (0.30 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 4
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 5
Game Distribution: 2 two-game weeks, 2 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Lopsided game distribution and five back-to-back games make the Islanders one of the least attractive teams to be holding shares in for the fantasy hockey playoffs. Of course John Tavares is a must-own, and owners who have waited for Kyle Okposo to return to the lineup won't mind so much, but Ryan Strome and Brock Nelson owners will have to temper expectations for the rest of the season.
New York Rangers (0.60 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 9
Games on Busy Days: 12
Back-to-Backs: 5
Game Distribution: 3 three-game weeks, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: The New York Rangers are leading the league with a 0.60 nERD are looking destined to make another deep playoff run. A favorable schedule will help fantasy owners for their purposes, as well. Even when Henrik Lundqvist returns from his neck injury, Cam Talbot should still get a fair share of starts as the Rangers are well entrenched in a playoff spot and have five back-to-back games remaining on their schedule. Buy into Derek Stepan, as he has quietly put up a 0.96 points per game pace since missing the beginning of the season.
Ottawa Senators (-0.01 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 8
Games on Busy Days: 12
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 2 three-game weeks, 4 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Andrew Hammond has breathed some life back into the Ottawa Senators and an increasing number of fantasy hockey teams. If the young goalkeeper can continue anywhere near his 1.50 goals against average and .948 save percentage, he could be the second coming of Dubnyk (a free agent missionary). Bobby Ryan and Kyle Turris are good bets, too, as the Senators have four four-game weeks left. Their players will have plenty of opportunity to contribute.
Philadelphia Flyers (-0.24 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 5
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Steve Mason should be back soon to give Flyers fan some relative stability in net. Much like the Canadiens, Philadelphia has a vanilla schedule, and all players should be taken at face value.
Pittsburgh Penguins (0.45 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 8
Games on Busy Days: 12
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 4 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: In fantasy hockey, buying a Penguin is always a good idea, especially if that player has a chance to play with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. Most Pens are owned in the majority of leagues, but Steve Downie is still available in more than half of Yahoo! leagues and can swing a week any game by racking up massive amounts of penalty minutes.
San Jose Sharks (0.00 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 7
Games on Busy Days: 12
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 5 three-game weeks, 1 four-game weeks
Recommendations: With their 0.00 nERD, the San Jose Sharks are about as middle-of-the-road as you can get these days. They are deep but struggling at forward. A sneaky play in deep leagues would be Melker Karlsson, as the young Swede is playing on a line with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau as of late. Look for Antti Niemi to get the lion's share of starts in net since the Sharks have very few back-to-backs and are pushing not to miss out on this year's playoffs.
St. Louis Blues (0.60 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 5
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 2 two-game weeks, 1 three-game week, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Although they sit atop our power rankings along with the Rangers with a 0.60 nERD, the St. Louis Blues have two weeks remaining with only two games on the schedule; that isn't great for owners. The good news though is that Kevin Shattenkirk is skating again after having abdominal surgery. Unfortunately, there is no timetable for his return, here is to hoping for before the end of the season.
Kevin Shattenkirk has started skating on his own. Skated for about 30 min today. Still weeks away #stlblues
— Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) February 23, 2015Tampa Bay Lightning (0.48 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 4
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 1
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 4 three-game weeks, 1 four-game week
Recommendations: Only one back-to-back set means Ben Bishop will be able to continue to frustrate owners who invested in him early in the draft. Fortunately for the Lightning, their scoring attack, led by Steven Stamkos, is one of the deepest in the league. Whoever is playing with Stamkos is worth a look; right now, it is Ryan Callahan and Alex Killorn.
Small note on the Lightning' s schedule: like the Canadiens and Washington Capitals, Tampa plays only two games in the final week of the season. If you are relying on some sort of combination of players from these three teams as the nucleus of your team, you're likely to come up short in the finals.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-0.26 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 8
Games on Busy Days: 11
Back-to-Backs: 4
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 3 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Well that blew up quickly. The Leafs were one of the leagues top scoring teams in December; now, ugh, it isn't much fun to be a Leafs fan. Out of pure frustration, hatred, and disappointment I can't recommend anyone on the team, unless they get traded. Except maybe Nazem Kadri. If you have a chance to grab him, you could do worse; Kadri is averaging 0.59 points per game in the past 30 days. That puts him on the edge of productive.
Vancouver Canucks (0.18 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 4
Games on Busy Days: 16
Back-to-Backs: 2
Game Distribution: 4 three-game weeks, 2 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Ryan Miller is probably out until the playoffs (if the Canucks make it that far), so Eddie Lack will run the show from here until the end of the season. Be wary of depth forwards on Vancouver since the team has only four games on "Off-Days." In shallow leagues, find your supporting cast elsewhere.
Washington Capitals (0.36 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 7
Games on Busy Days: 11
Back-to-Backs: 3
Game Distribution: 1 two-game week, 4 three-game weeks, 1 four-game week
Recommendations: As i mentioned already, the Capitals play only two games in the final week of the season. Be careful when making your final transactions of the year, and make sure you don't back yourself into a corner.
Winnipeg Jets (0.05 nERD)
Games on Off-Days: 4
Games on Busy Days: 14
Back-to-Backs: 2
Game Distribution: 2 two-game weeks, 1 three-game week, 3 four-game weeks
Recommendations: Finally, the last team. Tyler Myers is playing well with his new team and has contributed with two goals and four assists in eight games for the Jets while being owned in only 35% of Yahoo! leagues. Two two-game weeks is discouraging, but the three four-game weeks make up for that. Sometimes the bad comes with the good.
