NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Friday 10/14/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Oct 14th, 2022
With Frederik Andersen in net, the Hurricanes are large favorites to spoil San Jose's home opener. How does our model see that one playing out?

After last night's upset-laden slate, four Friday contests bring some odd matchups.

Where are the best spots to wager?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings

Under 6.5 (-114) - 2 Stars

These are two teams that -- coming into the year -- I thought had a great chance to exceed expectations. Montreal's start was a good one.

They upset the Maple Leafs on Tuesday, and the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals participant may have a shot to get back this year. That's especially the case if Jake Allen can return to a 2.68 GAA like he had that year. Allen only allowed three tallies to the potent Toronto offense.

Detroit is a team with a new 'tender, as well. Ville Husso is the main man now after outperforming Jordan Binnington in backup duty last year. Husso was 14th in the entire league last season in goals saved above expectation (14.1 GSAx).

These were two bottom-10 squads last season in expected-goals-for (xGF), and these netminders are capable.

Against the 53.3% implied odds of this bet, our model likes siding with fewer than seven total goals here. It expects that to happen 58.6% of the time.

Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks

Under 6.0 (-110) - 3 Stars

It could be another long season in San Jose.

The Sharks' two-game trip to the Czech Republic resulted in two losses and just four total goals. Nashville is a solid squad, but they were even lucky to post four tallies given just 3.74 xGF.

They'll have another brutal test with Carolina in their home opener. The Canes will send Frederik Andersen to the goal, and that was typically a good thing last year. He was second in all of hockey in GSAx last year (28.5).

It's hard to see more than a couple of tallies from the struggling Sharks offense against one of the game's elites. That's why Carolina is 61.3% likely to win on the road, per our model.

It does state there's a smidge of value in betting the Sharks, but the best bet of the entire day is the under here. It's a three-star wager with a 66.4% likelihood to at least push against six goals.

Against standard 52.5% implied odds, that's a solid expected return.