NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/26/22
Wednesday has just three games on tap, but numberFire's model still likes a couple of wagers enough to stay busy.
Where are the best spots to bet?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues
Blues ML (-105) - 1 Star
The best game is this clash between Edmonton's offensive juggernaut and St. Louis' defensive prowess.
It is hilarious the Oilers just remain the same team year after year -- even swapping in new parts. They're seventh in expected goals for per 60 minutes (3.58 xGF), and they're seventh-worst in expected goals allowed per 60 (3.42 xGA).
Whereas, outside of Jordan Kyrou, we know the Blues won't be sending out a ton of offensive wizards, but they're a tough out. They've posted the ninth-best xGA per 60 minutes (2.91), and Jordan Binnington is 15th in goals saved above expectation (2.76 GSAx).
We tend to favor defense because the public bets offense and creates value there. Our model is backing the Blues tonight, slotting them a 55.0% chance to win this game outright. Against these 51.2% implied odds, there is enough value on their moneyline to back them, too.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks
Under 6.5 (-115) - 2 Stars
The panic alarms might be sounding for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
They were -- once again -- stuck in neutral last night's 4-2 loss to Los Angeles, and now they'll travel unrested to Anaheim.
If you take the jerseys and pedigree away, their analytical background is concerning. I'm all for expected stats, but this Bolts team has actually just tucked away the 10th-fewest actual goals scored per 60 in the league (2.84). They're due for a bit of regression to their expected goals per 60 mark (3.20), but that's not world-class, either.
Meanwhile, this is also a Ducks squad that's scored the third-fewest goals in the league per 60 minutes (2.30).
While regression could bite us tonight, I'm opting to lean with the model's historical data in this spot. Of the 20 most similarly profiled games to this one in the database, 18 of them fell short of the required seven goals for this total.
All in all, our model expects the under to hit 60.0% of the time here. Compared to these 53.5% implied odds, it's recommending a two-unit (i.e. -- two-star) bet on this line, which is its best recommendation of the day.
