NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 10/27/22
Hockey Thursday is back in our lives again.
We've got a delicious 10-game slate to pick and prod through. Our model has three wagers it's putting out as its best of the day, and I love them, too.
Where are they? I'll show you.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins
Under 6.5 (-115) - 3 Stars
It's beautiful to see regression start to impact betting lines.
Now, with substantive data, we are starting to get a feel for these teams. No one would say the Bruins and Red Wings are "bad" defensive hockey teams, and they've allowed the 9th- and 14th-fewest goals per 60 minutes, respectively, thus far. However, it should be lower than that.
When looking at expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (xGA), these two are even better. Boston has allowed the fourth-fewest xG (2.53), and Detroit has allowed the ninth-fewest (2.98).
With 67% of the handle on the under in this one, the line is moving quickly, and sharp bettors are flocking to the under in this spot.
Our model is assigning a 62.1% chance that this game stays south of seven goals. Even against these inflated 53.5% implied odds, we can fire at a low-scoring match in Beantown tonight.
Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres
Under 6.5 (+114) - 3 Stars
The market may not have entirely adjusted on these perceived bottomfeeders.
The Sabres have actually fallen short of their goal total in four of five decided outcomes this year (one was a push), and they've allowed the eighth-fewest goals in hockey. Veteran Craig Anderson -- basically written off after a dismal spell in Ottawa -- has been sensational, posting the 11th-most goals saved above expectation (3.67 GSAx).
Jake Allen of the Canadiens can certainly relate. Many felt he'd never deliver on his potential harkening back to his days in St. Louis, but Allen is seventh in GSAx (5.00) so far.
Realistically, you'd see a goal total at 6.0 between two top-12 netminders, but the name value here just isn't quite being trusted yet.
Our model sees this game as 60.5% likely to fall short of the necessary seven goals to hit the over, which results in a three-unit recommendation. Hockey is random, so I almost always stick to one unit, but I'll deploy comfortably on these underrated goalies.
Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks
Sharks ML (+190) - 3 Stars
Sharks +1.5 (-140) - 4 Stars
This was the game that stood out for our model. Its giving the Sharks a 51.5% to win this game outright. Huh?
Well, it makes more sense when you realize Toronto is sending AHL call-up Erik Kallgren to the net. Kallgren lost to the Coyotes in his lone start this year, and that's a huge downgrade for the Leafs from Ilya Samsonov, who is fifth in GSAx this year and really has patched up plenty of holes in their defense.
San Jose isn't quite as bad as their 2-7 record or putrid 38.7% goals-for rate would imply. Their expected-goals-for percentage (xGF%) is 46.5%, which is just the 10th-worst mark in hockey.
This is one of those contrarian spots where you just plug your nose and take value. A vast majority of puckline bets (78%) and moneyline bets (91%) are on the Maple Leafs -- likely not caring who the goalie is because San Jose stinks.
The best value bet of the day, per our model, is here. As mentioned, our model thinks the Sharks win outright a majority of the time against these 34.5% implied odds, and it believes they cover the puckline 74.8% of the time (against 58.3% implied odds).
