NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Monday 10/31/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Oct 31st, 2022
The Kings are traveling to face St. Louis on Monday. Can we back them despite Jonathan Quick's struggles?

We are so early in the season that metrics are shifting early and often.

The trend of Hurricanes unders fell apart over the weekend. They allowed nine total goals in that process. We can give in or stay strong.

Here's what our model decided.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes

Under 6.0 (-108) - 2 Stars

We're hopping back on here anyway.

With just one quick home game on a back-to-back, Carolina has essentially now been on a seven-game trip, and there's a bit of solace with three of the next four at home -- including Monday against Washington.

Frederik Andersen can ask the opposing netminder, Darcy Kuemper, about dry spells. Kuemper started the year giving up eight goals in two games, but he's now rallied to be 13th in goals saved above average (GSAA) this year. Andersen is currently 43rd in that category (-1.26) after his tough weekend.

Still, these were two top-10 goalies in hockey last year in both GSAA and goals saved above expectation (GSAx). Plus, if you're worried about Andersen, he's playing in front of the fifth-best team in the NHL in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (2.64).

If the Canes' rut continues, we may have to shelve their unders for a while, but numberFire's model gives it a 65.0% chance to at least push in this space. Against these 51.9% implied odds, we can ride one more time.

Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues

Blues ML (-120) - 2 Stars

If we're tasked with two bad teams in a contest, we might as well take the home side.

Both Los Angeles and St. Louis are bottom-eight squads in goals-for percentage (GF%), but the Blues are the host squad in this one. Their struggles have been offensive, posting the fifth-fewest goals per 60 minutes (2.56). However, their expected goals-for mark (2.88) is at least higher.

There's a reason I can seemingly never get behind the Kings, and it's goalie Jonathan Quick. I expected a decent year from Quick, but he's been anything but, posting the third-worst GSAx (-4.75) in hockey so far.

When a struggling offense meets a bad goaltender, that's when to get behind them. Our model is doing just that tonight, giving St. Louis a 59.3% chance to win this contest. Even against the inflated implied odds (54.5%) at -120, there's still value in betting on the home team here.