NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Monday 11/14/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Nov 14th, 2022
Can Ryan O'Reilly and the Blues keep things tight against his former club? Find out what our model thinks.

There are only four games on Monday's slate, but two include a pair of my favorite NHL betting trends.

Let's roll.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks

Under 6.0 (-106) - 1 Star

The low-scoring Hurricanes did it again over the weekend.

They held a potential Stanley Cup Finals preview with the Avalanche to five total goals, meaning the under has now hit in 9 of their 15 contests. They're still holding strong to give up the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.68 xGA) in the NHL.

The opposing Blackhawks are likely to help out on Monday. They're third from the bottom in expected goals scored per 60 minutes (2.44 xGF).

Now, the public loves the over here thinking the Chicago defense is porous, and Carolina can get pretty close on their own. We see 67% of bets are on that side. However, the Blackhawks have only allowed the 14th-most expected goals per 60 (3.17). They haven't been the leaky unit expected before the season.

With an elite defensive hockey team battling an average one, our model expects six or fewer goals in this contest 59.5% of the time. Against these 51.5% implied odds, we can fire a wager on this small slate.

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

Blues +1.5 (-150) - 2 Stars

The Avs were a bit fortunate last year. They were just ninth-best in xGF% per 60 minutes, but their dominant season translated into a cup.

This season, it's so much more egregious. They're 11th from the bottom in xGF% (48.8%) and have an 8-4 record.

Like the Warriors in the NBA, talent like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will always result in Colorado outperforming its scoring metrics. Shot quality isn't the same for great players. Still, this gap is way too wide to give a -150 puckline against a team like the Blues.

In what's considered a dismal season for the 5-8 squad, St. Louis has an identical xGF% (48.8%) to the Avalanche.

The gap, admittedly, has been in the net. Alexandar Georgiev (4.41 goals saved above expectation) has thoroughly outperformed Jordan Binnington (-2.11 GSAx) this year. Both posted a GSAx below -5.00 last year, though, so it could just be a hot start for Colorado's goalie.

Even with the current gap in goaltending, our model and I like the puckline in this spot. It's giving the Blues a 65.8% chance to stay within a tally here. That's still worth a bet against these 60.0% implied odds