NHL Betting Guide: Monday 11/21/22
Monday's NHL slate is a bit heavier than most. We have 10 games to sift through on the docket, and these three lines stood out right away inside of numberFire's model.
Here are the best wagering spots on the board.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jets ML (+128) - 2 Stars
I have a Stanley Cup future bet on the Carolina Hurricanes, but I also recognize this is the time of the season to go at them.
They've placed Frederik Andersen on injured reserve, so Antti Raanta has taken over. Raanta is far from the league's worst backup, but at -0.33 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season, he's shown to be beatable.
On the other side looms another of my favorites. The Winnipeg Jets had almost no expectations this season, but they've posted a positive expected goals-for rate (50.5 xGF%), and Connor Hellebuyck is back in the Vezina conversation. Hellebuyck's 13.87 GSAx trail only Carter Hart of the Flyers.
Our model has Winnipeg as the fifth-best team in hockey, and Carolina is currently just eighth. That's why it's assigning the Jets -- at home -- a 50.2% chance to win tonight. That'll be a recommended wager against these 43.9% implied odds every time.
Islanders +1.5 (-154) - 3 Stars
I have cleaned up on Toronto pucklines this year, and it doesn't appear to stop here.
The Leafs are 5-14 against the spread (ATS) overall, and they're 2-9 ATS at home. As one of the better -- and most popular -- teams in hockey, this puckline gets juiced to the point where there's immense value in backing the 'dog at their price.
It's tremendously easy to see their path to failure tonight. Even with Matt Murray (1.49 GSAx) playing better, Toronto will have a significant deficit in net. Coming off a year where Ilya Sorokin was potentially snubbed for last year's Vezina, he's in the running again. Sorokin is ranked third in GSAx (12.65) overall.
Our model's favorite bet of the day is the Islanders' spread -- at a fair price -- here. It believes New York covers 69.6% of the time against these 60.6% implied odds. With 54% of bets and 90% of the handle on the Maple Leafs, this line could get better, so monitor it throughout the day.
Under 6.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
This is one of those lines that is a good handicap with a potentially great outcome in store.
At worst here, the Canucks should struggle to score on the Golden Knights. Vegas has allowed the fourth-fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (2.59), and Logan Thompson has been a surprise standout in goal. He's 11th overall in GSAx (4.95). Plus, Vancouver is seventh from the bottom in expected goals (xGF) per 60 (2.85).
That alone would be a good recipe for an under, but on Friday, we discussed a Thatcher Demko rebound potentially looming, and he answered the bell, stopping 37 of 38 shots. If Demko continues to work his way back towards the top-20 GSAx he held last year, that'll reduce scoring in this one, too.
Overall, our model believes this game sees six or fewer goals 59.0% of the time. Against these 52.9% implied odds, this is a final value bet on the West Coast to round out Monday's slate.