NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/22/22
I didn't really know what to expect with just a two-game slate on Tuesday, but numberFire's model has two multi-star wager recommendations on two near-even moneylines.
That's what I'm talking about! Here are the sides to back.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sabres ML (-102) - 2 Stars
The Canadiens have the league's third-worst expected-goals-for rate (41.1 xGF%), so it's a borderline miracle that they enter this one with a winning record. Early in the season, it was due to Jake Allen standing on his head, but Allen has cooled to rank just 21st in goals saved above expectation (2.66 GSAx) across the NHL.
We didn't expect Allen's hot start to hold, and we can say the same thing about Buffalo's veteran, Craig Anderson. He's still clinging to a positive GSAx (1.55), but these are two netminders we expected to be below average before the year.
What's the difference, then? The Sabres' skaters have performed much better, posting the 19th-best xGF% (48.4%) in the NHL. Is it good? No. Is it much better than their foe tonight? Yes.
Our model is backing the slightly more talented road 'dog, too. It's giving Buffalo a 55.8% chance to win this game outright against these 50.2% implied odds. With a bulk of tickets and cash on the Canadiens, this is a line that could improve throughout Tuesday afternoon.
Rangers ML (-110) - 2 Stars
We'll back a second road squad in the nightcap -- though this one won't take nearly as much convincing.
We know last year's Eastern Conference runner-ups can play. The Rangers have the league's fifth-best xGF% (56.3%), and their brick wall in net, Igor Shesterkin, is following his 2021-22 Vezina Trophy with another quality campaign in 2022-23. Igor has recorded the eighth-best GSAx in hockey (5.86) to this point.
The opposing Kings just don't have that same resumé. They're a solid ninth in xGF% (52.4%), but where they really fall behind is in the goaltending department. Whichever of Cal Petersen (-5.23 GSAx) or Jonathan Quick (-3.91 GSAx) gets the start tonight doesn't hold a candle to Shesterkin.
Predictably, that's made the Rangers the popular betting side tonight, but I still believe it to be the right one -- and so does our model. We are giving New York a 58.9% chance to win this game. Against these standards 52.5% implied odds, we will back the Rangers in this spot.