NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 11/28/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Logan Thompson ($8,600): The Vegas Golden Knights are massive -310 road favorites against a short-handed Columbus Blue Jackets' lineup. To say the Blue Jackets are dealing with some injuries would be an understatement. They have six players already on Injured Reserve and could be missing Johnny Gaudreau tonight.
The Golden Knights have been super solid on defense to start the season, allowing just 2.22 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-best in the league. On the other side, the Blue Jackets are allowing a league-worst 3.82 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Considering how short-handed the Blue Jackets are and how bad they are on defense, Thompson should be a near lock for a win due to the Vegas offense piling up the goals. The win equity is high with Thompson, and he should also be in a spot to come away with an easy win.
High-Salaried Skaters
Matthew Tkachuk ($10,100): The Florida Panthers have a 3.29 implied goal total tonight and could be in for a very high-scoring game. Both the Panthers and Edmonton Oilers are in the bottom half of the league for the most goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, presenting some clear scoring upside.
Tkachuk is not only a great offensive player but is in a spot where he needs to do a bit extra for the Panthers since Sasha Barkov is out for a few games. Any time a team is missing their top-line center, there will be other players to step up, and Tkachuk is that player for the Panthers.
He comes in with 7 NHL points and 17 shots on goal over his last five games -- a level of production he can certainly build on. The NHL points per game are great, but we'd like to see the shots on goal a bit higher -- especially with Barkov out of the lineup. The Oilers have a 58.4 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 11th worst in the league. This is a matchup that should allow Tkachuk to rack up the shots, and the 7.0-goal total puts him in a spot for a multi-point game.
Nikita Kucherov ($10,200): Historically, Kucherov owns the Buffalo Sabres. In 29 career games against Buffalo, Kucherov has 35 NHL points and 94 shots on goal. There's no doubt the Sabres are better this year than they have been in the past, but it's still an elite matchup for Kucherov.
The Sabres are allowing the eighth-most (2.81) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is a favorable matchup for any team but especially the Tampa Bay Lightning. They hold a 3.58 implied goal total tonight. Kucherov also comes in on a hot streak with 8 NHL points and 23 shots on goal in just his last five games. His role on the first forward line and the first power-play unit is rock solid, which should make him viable in all formats tonight.
Value Skaters
William Karlsson ($5,600): Vegas comes in with a slate-high 4.00 implied goal total and could cruise past that versus the Blue Jackets. As noted above, the Blue Jackets are allowing the most (3.82) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations and have proven to be a fantasy wonderland for opposing skaters.
We essentially want to target them every time they are on the slate -- tonight being no different. Karlsson is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for Vegas, which has led him to rack up 5 NHL points, 23 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots over his last 10 games. You should be fully on board with Vegas in all formats tonight.
Mason Marchment ($5,800): The Dallas Stars have a 3.07 implied goal total tonight and offer a few value options. Over the past few seasons, the Stars weren't known as an elite offensive team, but that has changed quickly this season. They are in the top 12 of the league in both goals scored (3.10) and Corsi For (58.04) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
That type of offensive production will make them a viable option on most nights, and now, they find themselves against the St. Louis Blues, who are allowing the 10th most (2.74) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Marchment is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 5 NHL points, 25 shots on goal, and 4 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
