NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/29/22
For a nine-game slate, our model doesn't see a ton of value on Tuesday's board. We've got some odds matchups with plenty of travel, and there are some coinflip games that are rightfully lined as coinflips.
Still, I think the two lines it's giving two-star approval to are worth a wager. Here they are.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers
Under 6.0 (-118) - 2 Stars
If we can get a fair total with the two best goaltenders in hockey, we kind of have to take the under, right?
The unsurprising goaltender in this one is New York's Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin was in the Vezina conversation on last year's strong defensive squad, and he's held up his end of the bargain by leading the NHL in goals saved above expectation (21.09 GSAx). He's been unreal.
On the other side is a bit of a surprise, and that's Philadelphia's Carter Hart. The much-maligned Hart -- even by yours truly -- has tapped into the potential the Flyers have seen him all along. He's second in hockey in terms of GSAx (12.82) -- well behind the scorching-hot Sorokin.
Those who only look at skater metrics might slam the over here. These teams are both top five in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes, but the netminders can make all the difference.
Our model sees the under winning out 58.5% of the time against these 54.1% implied odds.
Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators
Ducks +1.5 (-122) - 2 Stars
This is less about supporting a hapless Anaheim squad and more about this principle: almost always take pucklines hovering around near-even money against flawed squads.
Unsurprisingly, the public is lining up to bet against this 6-15-1 Ducks squad. 66% of bets and 76% of the money are on the puckline of the host Predators tonight. The problem is Nashville hasn't earned that over anybody.
The Ducks, after all, have just the fourth-worst expected-goals-for rate in hockey (41.3 xGF%). They just have the worst record in the NHL. The Preds aren't far in front of them, holding the eighth-worst mark (47.0 xGF%).
For the most part, Nashville is properly favored here, which is why Anaheim's moneyline has just a one-star rating in the model. However, the puckline is the model's best bet of the day in this spot, giving the Ducks a 66.5% chance to keep this game within a tally.
