NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/30/22
I'm once again asking the NHL schedule makers to help a guy out.
We've got three two-star (or better) wagers inside the model today on just a four-game slate. That number was two on yesterday's nine-game slate. Put some matchups with value out there on large slates, my friends!
Here are today's picks.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sabres ML (+110) - 2 Stars
Our model favors the road Sabres in this spot, and it's because it watches goalie news.
Buffalo is a mid-pack 18th in expected percentages of goals for (50.2% xGF%), and that mark is indeed positive. Plus, Craig Anderson has been overall an asset in goal, tallying the 17th-best goals saved above expectation (2.85 GSAx) in the NHL so far.
The Red Wings have had a better performance skating, ranking 14th in xGF% (51.5%), but the actual mark is pretty close to Buffalo's. However, despite adequate rest for Ville Husso, Detroit is apparently turning to Alex Nedeljkovic in net tonight, who has been an outright disaster in 2022 (-8.97 GSAx).
With Nedeljkovic factored in, our model is giving Buffalo a 56.3% chance to win this game outright. I'd hop on this line as soon as possible because NHL cappers will research Detroit's struggling netminder and likely move this line Wednesday afternoon.
Under 6.5 (-115) - 3 Stars
Even with the goaltending inefficiency in mind, this is the model's best bet of the day.
The Rangers and Senators have been profitable teams for unders this season. We've seen 14 of New York's 23 games have fallen short of their projected tally, and 13 of Ottawa's 21 contests have landed in the same direction. These two offenses -- which do have stars -- might be a tinge overvalued.
Plus, we're expecting both top goaltenders in this one. Reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin has done his thing this year (3.69 GSAx), but the surprise is Ottawa's Cam Talbot has rebounded from a down year to nearly match him in productivity (2.60 GSAx).
Against these 53.5% implied odds, our model believes this game falls short of a 6.5-goal tally a sizable 64.5% of the time. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Sharks +1.5 (+100) - 2 Stars
This will be my smallest wager of the night because analytics are hard to ignore, but from a process perspective, it's contrarian and the sharper side. Toronto is 2-10 against the spread (ATS) at home this year, and our model also believes there's value in the lowly Sharks to cover the spread.
Those aforementioned analytics don't really lie. Toronto is ninth in the NHL in xGF% (54.5%), and Kyle Dubas' gamble to let Jack Campbell walk and find two other high-upside goalies has paid off in the form of Matt Murray. Murray is 16th in all of hockey in GSAx (4.91).
As for San Jose, they're not as bad as their record -- but still bad. They're ninth from the bottom in xGF% (46.9%), but hey, tonight's goalie Aaron Dell could be a surprise making his first appearance of the season. He's got a .904 save rate in AHL this year and had a decent GSAx (1.10) back in 2019-20.
Our model -- avoiding the moneyline -- believes the Sharks cover the spread here 53.0% of the time against these 50.0% implied odds.