NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 12/2/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Connor Hellebuyck/David Rittich ($8,500): The Winnipeg Jets are the largest (-235) moneyline favorite tonight -- and the clear spot to look for a goalie. The Jets are rolling this season and have shown to be one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing only 1.82 goals Per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-best in the league.
On the other side, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the worst team in the league this season, allowing 3.76 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Considering how bad the Blue Jackets' defense is this season, the Jets should be able to find the back of the net and power their goalie to a win. It's as simple as that.
Kyle Connor ($8,000): Connor got off to a slow start this season in the goal-scoring department, but things have changed quickly for him. He has eight goals on the season, six of which have come in the last 10 games. He's hot right now, and on top of those 6 goals, he has 8 assists and 32 shots on goal over his last 10 outings.
This is the type of matchup to keep that scoring going, and it makes him a clear top option on a small three-game slate. The Blue Jackets are not only allowing the league-worst for goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, but they are also dead last in the league with a 65.72 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) in that same ice situation. Connor is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, putting him in a spot for another multi-point performance.
Brady Tkachuk ($9,400): The Ottawa Senators are a fun team for fantasy hockey. They are in the top five of the league in Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created), showing they are constantly pushing the pace on offense. Plus, they are around the league average when it comes to goals allowed and goals scored.
They move the puck, they aren't great on defense, and are solid on offense. This puts their players in spots to be consistent fantasy producers, and that's exactly what we've seen from Tkachuk. He has 9 NHL points and a whopping 54 shots on goal in just his last 10 games. The Senators' captain is the driver of their offense, and with his time on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, the high fantasy ceiling will always be there for him.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($4,900): Traditionally, the New York Islanders aren't known as a strong offensive team, but they are off to a good start this season and we want to ride the hot hand. The Islanders are scoring 2.65 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 11th-best in the league. It's a noticeable improvement from their 2.37 goals scored rate in that situation from a season ago.
Since that is the case, we want to look here for some fantasy options, and JGP is a solid value play. He's skating on the third forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 7 NHL points, 18 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots over his last 10 games.
Jimmy Vesey ($4,200): The New York Rangers have a 3.38 implied goal total, which is the second-highest on the slate. They're a clear team to target tonight. The Rangers are underproducing on offense right now when we look at their current goals scored per 60 (2.47) compared to their expected goals scored (xGF), which is sitting at 2.82. They are due for some positive regression, and buying in on that via value options is a good idea.
Vesey is on the first forward line for the Rangers but isn't seeing any power-play time. That's not ideal, but at only $4,200 and time on the first forward line, he's worth a shot considering he has 6 NHL points, 20 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots over his last 10 games.