NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 12/8/22
The over is receiving a majority of bets in all five games set to take place on Thursday. Realistically, a bulk of the value -- in terms of totals -- should be on the under.
Which ones stand out, per our model? I'll show you.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Under 6.5 (-128) - 2 Stars
This is my favorite under of the day.
It largely has to do with great goaltending. Not only have Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy typically been Vezina Trophy contenders, but they're playing well in 2022. Saros is 14th in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (6.42 GSAx), and Vasilevskiy is 21st (3.96).
In terms of actual goals scored per 60 minutes, Nashville is fifth from the bottom (2.61). They've deserved better in terms of expected goals for (3.05 xGF per 60), but that can also be a problem that their Corsi For generated aren't strong attempts. Tampa Bay is predictably better (3.48 xGF per 60), but they've put forth only 11 goals in their past four games.
numberFire's model is making a well-backed case for this one on history. Of the 10 most-similar game profiles to this one in our database, each one featured six goals or fewer. That's comforting given the juice on this line; this line could be headed to a 6.0-goal total by this afternoon.
All in all, our model gives this bet a 62.0% chance to win outright, so it'll still be viable at a plus-money 6.0-goal total if necessary.
Under 6.5 (+100) - 2 Stars
With 50.0% implied odds on the same number, oddsmakers are expecting more scoring in Florida.
It does make sense in any Panthers contest. They lead the league in xGF per 60 minutes (3.81), so they can score. They're a modest 16th in expected goals allowed per 60 (3.11), and Spencer Knight (4.05 GSAx) has quelled the Panthers' early-season goalie issues.
Detroit, though, is a team that will typically be a better bet for unders. They're eighth-best in xGA per 60 minutes (2.86), and they've posted 3.08 xGF per 60 minutes (16th in the league). Ville Husso, fresh off shutting down the aforementioned Lightning, is also ninth in the league in GSAx (7.14).
When we mash these two teams together, our model finds plenty of value in this under, expecting it to hit 55.6% of the time. If anything, this line is moving to seven today at odds closer to what we see in Tampa.
Under 6.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
Our model tends to short the Ottawa Senators' offense because its historical component doesn't capture a wildly different roster, but I still don't mind this fair number.
Ottawa is an over bettor's dream. They're fifth-best in xGF per 60 minutes (3.49), and they're seventh from the bottom in xGA per 60 (3.49). Cam Talbot (0.29) has also been pretty average for them, but don't get me wrong; that's an upgrade over the Senators' last decade.
Here's the only issue -- they've fallen short of their projected goal total in 15 of 25 games this year. Maybe our model isn't too low.
Plus, the Stars -- at home -- are always a difficult nut to crack defensively. They're allowing just 2.88 xGF per 60 minutes in their own building (12th-best in the NHL), and Jake Oettinger is one of the sport's best netminders (8.96 GSAx).