NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 12/8/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Spencer Knight/Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,100): The Florida Panthers are solid -205 moneyline favorites against the Detroit Red Wings, and we can turn to their goalie tonight. The Panthers have one of the strongest offenses in the league and, generally, can put up enough goals to come away with the win.
To be specific, the Panthers are scoring 3.03 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-best in the league. The Red Wings' offense isn't anything stellar, only scoring 2.41 goals in the same situation, putting them as the 10th-lowest team in the league. The Panthers should be in a spot to score tonight, giving value to either Knight or Bobrovsky in net.
Jason Robertson ($10,600): The Dallas Stars have a 3.68 implied goal total tonight against the Ottawa Senators, which should make them a popular team in all formats. When it comes to scoring for the Stars, Robertson not only leads the way for them, but he has the third-most (41) points in the entire league. He's been elite this season, and the upside he carries on a nightly basis can help you climb the ranks in tournaments.
Robertson comes in with 16 NHL points and 52 shots on goal over the last 10 games -- one of the best rates of any player on this slate. He should be able to show that off tonight against the Senators, who are in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed (2.59) and Corsi Against (63.91), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Robertson is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, putting him in a spot to continue producing at a multi-point rate every night.
Kyle Connor ($8,500): It was a slow start to the season for Connor, but he has found his stride and comes in with 8 goals, 6 assists, and 38 shots on goal over his last 10 games. That is the level of production we should be seeing from a pure goal-scorer like Connor, giving him a high ceiling of points.
The matchup against the St. Louis Blues is a solid one. They are allowing the ninth-most (2.89) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations and the sixth-most (60.12) Corsi Against. This is one of the softer matchups on the slate, which is why we see the Winnipeg Jets rocking a 3.00 implied goal total.
Michael Bunting ($4,500): Bunting has been a solid producer for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it could be better. He's on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 8 NHL points, 13 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots in his last 10 games. That's certainly solid production, but given that offensive role, we want to see more goals.
It's shaping up for a solid fantasy matchup against the Los Angeles Kings since they are in the bottom half of the league for goals allowed -- and the top half of the league in goals scored. This should present a strong back-and-forth scoring environment, allowing a player like Bunting to reach value tonight.
Alex Killorn ($5,900): Killorn and the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3.72 implied goal total tonight, looking to bounce back after a loss. Tampa has been underproducing on offense this season, scoring only 2.49 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (19th in the league). If we look at their rate of expected goals scored (xGF), they should be up at 2.99 goals scored per 60, which would be the fifth-best mark in the league.
It's a clear gap in production and a spot to look to their players who are ready to break out on offense. Killorn has 11 NHL points and 20 shots on goal over his last 10 games while playing on the third forward line and the second power-play unit.