NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 12/13/22
We pushed our totals yesterday to a slight gain, but today's card is weird. Our model's favorite bet is a juiced moneyline...and I don't hate it?
Which lines stand out on the 12-game slate?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning ML (-192) - 4 Stars
I wish I could say this packed card was loaded with bets, but it's not.
If I ever were to lay a -192 moneyline, it'd be here. You have the defending East champs, the Tampa Bay Lightning, taking on a team in Seattle that I've pegged as overvalued all season.
The Kraken, amidst a 1-3 slump already, are 10th in goals-for percentage (53.0 GF%), which would be a top team in the league. However, their expected-goals-for percentage (51.7 xGF%) is a bit lower.
Not only are the Bolts the better team in that regard (52.3 xGF%), but there's a canyon-sized gap in goal here. Martin Jones is now sliding rapidly, holding a mark of -3.73 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). That's 15th-worst in the NHL. For Tampa, Andrei Vasilevskiy (6.28 GSAx) has the 15th-best mark in hockey.
That's why even with these inflated odds, our model loves the Bolts today. It's projecting them to win 74.9% of the time, but these odds only imply a 65.8% chance. I'll take this straight, but it's also not a bad parlay piece for those inclined.
Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres
Under 6.5 (+116) - 3 Stars
The shapeshifting of the Los Angeles Kings has been a bit odd.
They started the year as an offensive juggernaut, but now, they're an under bettor's dream. L.A. is 12th-worst in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.04 xGF), and they're 7th-best in expected goals allowed per 60 (2.79 xGA). Of course, the volatility with the Kings lies in the crease; both Calvin Petersen (-10.12 GSAx) and Jonathan Quick (-10.31 GSAx) are capable of ruining the defense's solid work in seconds.
They're an interesting target for this under against Buffalo regardless. No team in the league has a wider split between their actual goals scored per 60 minutes (3.83) and their expected goals scored per 60 (3.25). I'll probably be on Sabres unders for a month.
Our model concurs in this spot. Against these 46.3% implied odds, it's awarding a 50.3% chance this game sees six goals or fewer. Given the volatility of the Kings' goaltending situation, I love backing this down to a sub-one-unit play to win approximately one unit.
Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets
Under 6.0 (-110) - 2 Stars
Given the Avalanche's struggles, it's not crazy to think this could be a Western Conference Finals preview.
Vegas has built a juggernaut on defense. They're just 15th in expected goals per 60 minutes, but they've allowed the fourth-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.72), and Logan Thompson has been the surprise the Golden Knights needed. Amidst preseason uncertainty, he's posted 2.59 GSAx. It's not stellar, but he's been serviceable.
The Winnipeg Jets have used a bit different formula. They're middle of the pack in both xGF (3.18) and xGA (3.15) per 60 minutes, but their main man is back in fighting form. 2020 Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck is making another run for the podium this year, holding the second-best GSAx (17.35) in hockey.
Behind Hellebuyck and the home crowd, only 4 of the 14 games at Canada Life Centre have eclipsed their goal total this year. With two middle-of-the-road offenses powering into quality defenses, we can expect the same here.
Our model believes this game sees six goals or fewer 64.6% of the time. While that does include a push, it's still a valuable wager against these 52.5% implied odds.
