NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 12/20/22
The pain of betting a system on value instead of favorites is we'll have cold spells. It's been one now extended back into last week.
Last night was especially tough when you watch the games play out. Both totals burst over due to overtime.
We'll get back on the horse with a quality slate today.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets
Under 6.0 (-105) - 3 Stars
I love this under just like the model.
On the surface, these teams average a combined 6.71 expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes, which is why 67% of tickets are on the over here. Still, there are two key reasons to believe the Senators will have a tougher time scoring that expected.
First, Ottawa's not a juggernaut in actual goals per 60 (3.11) like they are xGF per 60 (3.55). They're due for regression, but it's also a bit of a lack of high-end scoring talent.
Second, Winnipeg has a brick wall in goal. Connor Hellebuyck is second in all of hockey in goals saved above expectation (16.93 GSAx). It also helps this under's case that Cam Talbot (5.30) hasn't been too shabby, either.
Our model sees six goals or fewer in this one 65.2% of the time. Even factoring in the potential push, this is a three-star wager against these 51.2% implied odds.
St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken
Over 6.0 (-118) - 2 Stars
You know today's going to be a good day when the model is on any over.
On the surface, St. Louis is hot. They've tallied 15 goals during their four-game winning streak. Now, they'll draw the flailing Martin Jones in Seattle tonight. Jones' early-season success has been vanquished to the tune of -4.32 GSAx (13th-worst in the NHL).
We know the Kraken can score, too. They're eighth in goals scored per 60 minutes (3.41). Plus, they'll battle a Blues defense that's surrendered the 10th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.27), and Jordan Binnington (-0.80 GSAx) hasn't been particularly special in the net to make up for it.
We usually see six-goal totals with Ilya Sorokin or Jake Oettinger in goal. Not these two. Our model sees at least six goals 66.6% of the time in this contest, which -- even once again factoring in a push -- is a tremendous wager at these 54.1% implied odds.
Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings
Ducks +1.5 (-114) - 3 Stars
There isn't a team in the league with an even-money puckline that I would pass on when they're facing the Los Angeles Kings.
The Kings are a solid defensive hockey team. They're eighth in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes, and they're usually in lower-scoring affairs given they also register the 13th-fewest xGF per 60 minutes themselves (3.03).
Here's the lone problem with being a defensive hockey team: you're toast if your goaltending stinks. Between Calvin Petersen (-10.31 GSAx) and Jonathan Quick (-10.32 GSAx), Los Angeles has two of the worst eight goalies in the sport this year.
That's why I'm willing to roll the dice on a Ducks team due for regression. Their xGF per 60 minutes (2.63) is significantly higher than their actual GF (2.37), and their xGA per 60 minutes (3.80) is significantly lower than their actual goals allowed per 60 (4.09). Plus, John Gibson (-1.82 GSAx) is actually a sizable advantage in this one.
Our model sees Anaheim covering 64.5% of the time against these 52.9% implied odds. I'll also sprinkle a bit on the Ducks' moneyline (+220) in a contest they can absolutely win.
